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The Sony Open completes the traditional fortnight curtain raiser in Hawaii and after last week’s wide and hilly pastures of Kapalua the Tour membership finds itself on the flat and tree-lined Waialae Country Club.
Patton Kizzire returns to defend his title, one claimed shortly after he grabbed a first PGA Tour win at El Camaleon in the final month of the preceding year.
That another Waialae winner had already proved himself on a tight, short and breezy test with Bermuda greens was no great surprise because plenty have done so in the last.
In recent years Justin Thomas was a winner (twice) in Kuala Lumpur, Fabian Gomez at Southwind and Jimmy Walker in Panama, whilst both Johnson Wagner and Mark Wilson, like Kizzire, had enjoyed success at El Camaleon.
The blustery wind can impact on scoring. From 2007 to 2012 13- to 16-under was the winning total since when every winner has gone lower (and four have been 20-under or lower).
2017 champion Justin Thomas, who opened with a 59 that year and closed last week’s Tournament of Champions with a 65 to grab third, is the 7/1 favourite.
1/ Champing at the bit
In the last few years Par 4 scoring has really mattered which makes a lot of sense because there are two more of them on this par-70 (as opposed to the regular par-72 make-up).
The Event Profile shows that all of last year’s top six ranked fourth or better on the Par 4s, in 2017 four of the top five did, 2016 winner Fabian Gomez was second, and back-to-back winner in 2014 and 15 Jimmy Walker was ranked first.
Meanwhile Walker in 2015, Thomas and Kizzire all ranked top two for Putt Average.
Two men feature highly when the field is ranked for Par 4 Scoring and Putt Average over the last 12 months.
The first is past champion Thomas (T1st for Par-4, 5th for Putt Average) the second Cameron Champ (T1st for Par-4, 1st for Putt Average) whose breakthrough win and driving distance stats had many wondering how he’d cope with the more tricky challenges which followed that result.
The answer was: very well. In fact he showed real maturity in avoiding his driver when he didn’t need it as he finished T10th at El Camaleon and T6th at Sea Island, both good warm ups for this week and both times he was second at halfway.
2/ Howell the third looks for fourth win
It took Charles Howell III a long time to notch the third PGA Tour victory of his career – over 11 years in fact between his win at the 2007 Nissan Open and last year’s RSM Classic triumph at Sea Island.
A long time visitor to Hawaii for the Sony Open a quick database search of his course form reveals exactly why he must pencil this date into the calendar as soon as possible.
In 17 starts he has only twice missed the weekend, only four times not ended the week in the top 30, has nine top tens and seven of them were top fives.
Since missing the cut in 2011 he has played the track 28 times and failed to break par just the once.
This field is deeper than the one he limped past at Sea Island, but his course record is persuasive and the simple fact is that he’s a recent winner on a test not unlike this one.
3/ Zach attack
There was a lot of bullish talk from Zach Johnson last season that his game, ball and technology were allowing him to fight fire with fire with the big-hitting youngsters. In truth it never quite happened yet he notched 12 top 20 finishes.
He also said at the Open how much he liked to embrace whatever conditions were thrown at him, a reminder that he’s not afraid of dealing with wind and a nice mindset for this week.
An in-depth look at his form on the in/out contention database shows he contended here last year (tied for the first round lead, second at halfway), in Texas, at the Travelers and the Open – all of them short and/or windy.
Going to his stats form at Waialae we see, above and beyond the win in 2009, that he topped the Putt Averages in 2010.
Finally there is the six month scoring averages (Long Term Form) which shows he ranks sixth in the field.
Add in a neat T6th in the RSM Classic at Sea Island last time out and 40/1 offers a bit of value.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts
1pt e.w. Cameron Champ at 30/1 (Bet365 ¼ 1,2,3,4,5) mc 1pt e.w. Charles Howell III at 40/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 8th 1pt e.w. Zach Johnson at 40/1 (General ¼ 1,2,3,4,5) mc
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