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The U.S. Open returns to the Californian coast and the majestic Pebble Beach, a course that is so respected and adored yet this is only the sixth time America’s national championship has been played on it and, what’s more, all six have taking place since the start of the 1970s. But if there have been but a few U.S. Opens held there we have learned that this particular challenge is suited for a certain type of player. The first edition in 1972 was won by the great Jack Nicklaus, ten years later Tom Watson was victorious and in 2000 Tiger Woods destroyed the field by 15 strokes. Some might argue that Tom Kite in 1992 was a blip, but he was widely deemed the best player in the world yet to have won a major, and some would argue that Graeme McDowell was also an outliter, but the Northern Irishman is a four-time winner on the PGA, a ten-time champion in Europe and perhaps, most crucially, if the schedule allowed him to play more seaside golf in blustery wind he’d have boosted those numbers. That said, be slightly wary of allusions to links golf this week. It’s not a factor to ignore by any means - it is very much worthy of consideration - but remember this is not a link test. Control of ball flight in the wind is a consideration on the links and also at Pebble - that's true. Playing running shots and scrambling around the greens will be different however.
Angles to consider 1/ Pebble Beach form Nicklaus and Woods did the seasonal double, first claiming the early year AT&T Pro-am and then adding this title to their resumes. In 2010 Dustin Johnson was on course to do that, winning in February and then leading by three after 54 holes in June, but he could only add an 82 on Sunday. Kite and Watson were both course winners, McDowell was not but he had been T8th. 2/ Seasonal form Each of the last ten winners of this event had already logged a top three finish in the season. Eight of them had finished T2 or better, and three had been winners. 3/ Poa Annua If the set-up of the grass at Pebble will be unlike a links challenge the type of grass will present a challenge of its own. Poa Annua is a peculiar beast which, especially late in the day, can create a bumpy putting surface which infuriates some players.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Jordan Spieth Notched a third in last month’s PGA Championship and has kept the ball rolling (literally as well as metaphorically – his putting has improved) with top tens in his subsequent starts at Colonial and Muirfield Village. A winner at Pebble Beach in 2017 and had six top 25s in the Pro-am from seven starts. Already a multiple major winner like three of the five Pebble U.S. Open champs.
Brandt Snedeker A two-time winner of the Pro-am at Pebble Beach and he was also T8th in the 2010 edition of this tournament on the course. He’s also backed up his ability to putt on Poa Annua with two wins at Torrey Pines. At first glance his form record might lack the requisite top three, but with leeway the very first start of the season, back in October at the Safeway Open can be included and there’s good enough reason to expand the boundaries. That was played at Silverado, also in California and also on Poa Annua. He was second there after leading by three heading into the final lap. Shot 60 last week on his way to fourth in the Canadian Open – and it was another effort on those Poa greens.
Paul Casey Phil Mickelson very nearly got this spot and there’s no doubt that his course record, ability on Poa Annua and win in the Pro-am this week is appealing. His form, age and weight of desire to win this event less so. Instead Casey, the man he beat in February into second on this course, is the pick. He withdrew from his last start, but only with the flu. He’s a winner this year, has two top tens at Pebble and five top fours from his last ten completed tournaments (in addition to one of them being here, the other was in the WGC Mexico Championship – more Poa Annua).
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Jordan Spieth at 20/1 (Bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 65th 1pt e.w. Brandt Snedeker at 66/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 77th 1pt e.w. Paul Casey at 55/1 (Bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 20th
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