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Preview & Tips

  2019 P/L: -2.05pts
 
Wells Fargo Championship
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No return to Quail Hollow for Tiger Woods, who opts to keep his powder dry after his Masters success, but this week's Wells Fargo Championship remains a popular stop for the PGA Tour.


This will be the 16th edition of the event at the course and the 17th time it has been used on the schedule this century after it hosted the 2017 PGA Championship.


As such many players might well view the week as the ideal preparation for next month's renewal of that very major (now moved to May of course) and links with golf's biggest championships have long been something of a running theme in this event with past and future major winners thriving there (even a more unlikely one such as Lucas Glover).


Originally a George Cobb design there has been extensive work done on the layout done the years.


Post-2013 the greens got a hammering for their poor quality and they are now Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa.


Tom Fazio has been involved in redesign work and ahead of the PGA there was significant thinning out of trees and rerouting of the course.


Now played as a par 71 at 7554 yards it is tough challenge but one that is largely enjoyed by the field.


Angles to consider

Driving Distance

Three of the last five winners on the course (Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and JB Holmes) led this category. Other winners in the last seven years ranked 14th (Jason Day), 23rd (James Hahn), 11th (Derek Ernst) and 13th (Rickie Fowler). These numbers back up the anecdotal notion that this track favours big hitters.


Putting Average

The last five winners had hot putters and it might be no coincidence that before then few did. It seems after the improvement in the putting surfaces it became a factor.  Their ranks were first (Day), second (Thomas), fifth (Hahn), seventh (McIlroy) and fifth (Holmes).


Par 4 Performance


Of the last five winners Justin Thomas, James Hahn and Rory McIlroy topped this category, whilst Jason Day was fourth and JB Holmes was fifth. The length seems to be a factor on these holed in particular.

 

Selections

Thee above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.

 Webb Simpson

The past US Open champion ranks high in Putt Average (Course Compatibility 1) and Par 4 Performance (Course Comptibility 2), but there are other factors of interest this week. The first is that he is a member of the club and therefore knows the track well. He has acknowledged that it was a problem for a while as he had too high expectations of himself, but he has got over that. He finished second in 2015 and fourth in 2012, on both occasions leading the field at some stage in the week. He was also fifth in the Masters and then 16th in the Heritage.


Tony Finau

The lithe operator is a fine statistical fit for this week’s challenge and his record on the course suggests he is simmering. He ranks seventh for Driving Distance, fourth for Putt Average (both Course Compatibility 1) and fifth for Par 4 Performance (Course Compatibility 2). He’s 4-for-4 at making the cut and whilst he’s yet to grab a top ten he was 16th in 2015, 28th a year later and and 21st 12 months ago.


Rory McIlroy

The three stats pointers all flag up the Northern Irishman. He ranks first for Driving Distance, seventh for Putt Average (both Course Compatibility 1) and third for Par 4 Performance (Course Compatibility 2). He also ranks first in the Ratings and first for Current form. What of his actual efforts on the course? He says he loves the track, putting it up there with Bay Hill, Muirfield Village and Firestone as his favourites in the US and he has two wins to show for it.

 

Tips:  0-3; -6.00pts


2pts win Rory McIlroy at 6/1 (General)  8th


1pt e.w. Webb Simpson at 20/1 (PaddyPower, BF Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)  18th


1pt e.w. Tony Finau at 22/1 (BetFred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)  60th