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The dizzy pace of this 2018/19 season relents for one week. The four major championships hurtled by in just 15 weeks, straight after the last of them we had a World Golf Championship to account for and in seven days time the FedEx Cup play-offs begin. In a desperate attempt not to end August on their hands and knees the biggest names in the sport are mostly giving this week a miss therefore. That said this event has always had an August date and therefore has always been a week which struggles to attract the stars – it’s simply that this season the issue has been somewhat intensified. If all that sounds a little downbeat the good news is that the tournament is one the players do enjoy when they tee it up so the field is far from being poor. “I love the golf course,” Webb Simpson, winner in 2011, said last year. “Kind of a unique, shorter, tighter golf course that we don’t see a whole lot of the Tour’s rotation.” “It’s a position golf course,” added Ryan Moore, 2007 champion. “It’s not one where you can send driver down there all day. If you’re in the fairway you can hit a lot wedges, but hitting out of this rough it’s hard to hold the greens.” The greens have Champion Bermuda grass, the par is 70, the yardage is 7,127 and the designer is Donald Ross.
Angles to consider 1/ Putting Average The last three winners (Brandt Snedeker, Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim) all ranked second in this category – kind of obvious on a course where going low matters (they all recorded ridiculously low early laps – Snedeker a 59 to start, Stenson a 62, Kim a second round 60). 2/ Par 3 Performance Those same three past winners ranked second, second and first on the short holes. Whilst the man who preceded them (Davis Love III) wasn’t quite so hot, the 2015 54-hole leader (and ultimate runner-up) Jason Gore also ranked top two for both Putting Average and Par 3 Performance. 3/ TPC Sawgrass Five of the last eight winners here have also claimed a win in the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. 4/ Bermuda form Each of the last six winners here had already finished T11 or better that season on a tight, twisty track with Bermuda greens.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Charles Howell III His early season good form was in Kuala Lumpur, at Sea Island and then Waialae. All of them potentially nice hints for this week. He ranks 20th for Par 3 Performance and he also owns plenty of low rounds on the course down the years. He was second at the track on the second tier back in 2000, fourth in 2011 and T13th in 2009. Closed with two 65s for tied sixth when last seen (at the John Deere Classic). Denny McCarthy He ranks 12th in the field for Putting Average and ninth for Par 3 Performance (using the Course Compatibility tables) and he was T9th at Innisbrook earlier this campaign, a layout that’s been a good pointer in the past (see 4 above). Promising debut here last year (66-67-67-70). Webb Simpson Got to go for a past Sawgrass champion and as tempting at Martin Kaymer is, he’s yet to really drop a hint on the right kind of course and his putting remains unconvincing. Simpson won the Players last year (indeed thrashed the field). This season he has been third at Sea Island and was a fine second last week at Southwind, closing with a 64. He ranks seventh for Putting Average in the field and 20th for Par 3 Performance. He’s a local and has seven course finishes of T11th or better with a win in 2011.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Charles Howell III at 50/1 (BetFred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 22nd 1pt e.w. Denny McCarthy at 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sports Book 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 22nd 2pts win Webb Simpson at 11/1 (Widely available) 2nd
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