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Although TPC Twin Cities was a host course on the Champions Tour, punters still had an air of uncertainty when it staged its first PGA Tour event last year. In the end, it worked out pretty much as expected in terms of score. Matthew Wolff won a birdie-fest, his 21-under edging out Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa by a single shot. The Arnold Palmer design had been altered by Minnesota native Tom Lehman although clearly the so-called toughening up didn’t make a huge difference. Some fairways have been narrowed this time so perhaps the winning score will come down by a few but 'these guys are good' goes the slogan so birdies will be on the agenda once more. That’s a contrast to the gruelling conditions at Muirfield Village last week when scores ballooned in the final round of the Memorial Tournament. A decent field gathers here, with Tommy Fleetwood making his first start since the PGA Tour resumed. Former World No.1s Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka are also in the field. Last year, Phil Mickelson noted of this layout: “It’s in phenomenal shape and fun to play. A lot of water but a lot of birdie opportunities. “There’s a big margin of error around the greens because they’re big and they’re soft.” Koepka pointed out: “It’s a longer golf course. I can hit driver and take advantage of it and kind of cut some corners.” As it turned out, there were some big hitters in the top ten but, as we’ll see below, it was tee-to-green excellence that stood out. Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained: Tee to Green Strong SG: Tee To Green numbers were definitely a big factor in the inaugural edition. Winner Matthew Wolff gained 13.315 TTG (Rank: 1st) while joint runner-up Collin Morikawa gained 12.795 (Rank: 2nd). By contrast, those two ranked 39th and 47th in SG: Putting. 2/ Par 4 Performance This par 71 has 11 par 4s (one more than a standard 72) and last year’s champion Wolff played them in 12-under (joint-best). There was strong correlation between the other top finishers and how they performed on TPC Twin Cities’ par 4s. 3/ Birdie Average Last year’s tournament was won with 21-under and three players made 26 birdies on the week – Wolff, Collin Morikawa and Adam Hadwin. The finishing positions of those three players – first, tied second and solo fourth. Conditions could be a little trickier but the count will still have to be high. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Harris English English was in excellent shape before the PGA Tour was suspended but he’s been quick to pick up his form, posting T17 at The Heritage and T13 in last week’s Memorial Tournament. He ranked 13th in SG: Tee To Green at Muirfield Village and is T8th this season in Par 4 scoring. A missed cut here last year isn’t a big concern given the level he’s playing at right now. English is 26th in the FedEx Cup rankings and 11th in Scoring Average. Lucas Glover Glover enjoyed his first start at TPC Twin Cities last year, firing 67-72-67 and then a closing 62 to finish tied seventh. He’s not finished worse than T38 in five starts since golf returned and his SG: Tee To Green numbers have been impressive across those tournaments. A final-round 63 at the Travelers was a reminder that he can go low and Glover is 32nd on the season-long Birdie Average stats. A decent putting week and he should be in the mix. Russell Henley Looking at the average Strokes Gained charts shows Henley ranks No.1 in the field since golf came back without crowds. On his latest start, he ranked 4th in SG: Tee To Green to help him finish T7 at the Workday Charity Open and just three events earlier he also made the top ten (Honda Classic). Henley is a healthy 31st in Par 4 Scoring and his ability to hit green after green should take him a long way this week. Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Harris English at 33/1 (William Hill, 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 18th 1pt e.w. Lucas Glover at 35/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 33/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc
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