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The PGA Tour stays in Florida this week but the Arnold Palmer Invitational is a different animal to the Honda Classic. Sungjae Im won at PGA National on Sunday with just 6-under-par, the seventh time in the last eight years that event has been won with single digits under par. Par at PGA National is 70 but it’s 72 at Bay Hill this week and the Orlando track has four par 5s which are crucial as we’ll note below. That different par partly explains why scoring is easier at Arnie’s event although the wind looks stronger than normal this year. Another difference at Bay Hill is the test from the tee and the challenge around the greens. Phil Mickelson noted last year: “I've always enjoyed it, I've always felt like the fairways were generous, I felt like they're fairly wide and the front of the greens are open in a number of spots, you can run some shots up if you get in trouble. I've always liked the golf course.” If that brings Augusta National to mind, the greens certainly do their best to mimic the Masters in terms of speed. These are super-fast and strong putting has always been a vital skill at Bay Hill. Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained Putting A look through the main Strokes Gained stats shows that the most important one is SG: Putting. Tiger scored the eighth of his Bay Hill wins in 2013 with a hot putter and every winner since has ranked in the top eight for SGP. 2/ Course form Tiger isn’t the only repeat winner at Bay Hill. The unlikely duo of Loren Roberts (1994/1995) and Matt Every (2014/2015) have won the event back-to-back while Ernie Els is another two-time winner. That’s just the tip of the iceberg with plenty of others having a bunch of top fives and tens. 3/ Par 5 Scoring With four to go at, scoring well on the long holes is big and eight of the last 10 winners at Bay Hill shot -9 or better for the week on the par 5s. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Bryson DeChambeau DeChambeau finished runner-up at Bay Hill in 2018 after opening 67-66 and has made all three cuts at the course. He’s rounding into some hot form this season, taking second at the WGC-Mexico after a top five at Pebble Beach. The ‘Scientist’ ranks 21st in Par 5 Scoring Average this season and also 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting so this looks an ideal place for him to shine again. Patrick Reed As a former winner at Augusta National, Reed can handle himself on these lightning greens and he showed that when tied seventh at Bay Hill two years ago. Reed captured the WGC-Mexico on his last start and a look at the Strokes Gained: Putting season stats shows Reed in third place. Also in the top third for performers on the par 5s, the 29-year-old can make his mark. Rickie Fowler Fowler has made seven of eight cuts at Bay Hill, finishing third back in 2013 and making the top 15 in two of his last three visits. He’s been a little rusty in recent starts but his underlying numbers hint at something better soon and make him suited to success on this course. Fowler is 17th in Par 5 scoring and 43rd in Strokes Gained: Putting. Finally, he’s also won twice previously in Florida. Tips: 1-2; -1.80pts 1pt e.w. Bryson DeChambeau at 16/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 4th 1pt e.w. Patrick Reed at 28/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 15th 1pt e.w. Rickie Fowler at 35/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 18th
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