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The PGA Tour makes its long-awaited comeback and it does so on Hogan’s Alley – the traditionally-designed, twisting, tree-lined Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. The Charles Schwab Challenge instinctively feels a little clumsy in the mouth, a modern name for an event with plenty of history, stretching back to 1946 when that man Hogan won the first of his five tournament titles. The fact he thrived here was an early pointer that the test suits a man who strikes the ball in fine style “It’s a shot-maker’s course,” said two-time winner (and tournament record low score holder) Zach Johnson, adding: “You have to manage your ball.” Kevin Kisner, the 2017 winner, went further: “This is the kind of golf course I dream about playing. In my opinion, too many courses are getting too long. You can tell the history here when you tee off here and they haven’t changed it. It’s precision golf.” With the notable recent example of Chris Kirk (see below), winners here therefore excel tee to green. And it’s not just that those fairways are hemmed in by woodland, they are also commonly doglegs which often takes driver out of the hands of the biggest hitters. Nor is that the only factor because the greens are small so the accuracy needs to come from the tee and also into the greens. The putting surfaces are bent grass, the par is 70 (just the two par 5s) and the yardage 7,402 yards. Perry Maxwell and John Bredemus were the architects and there has been very little in the way of alterations. Wind conditions can affect the scoring. So, too, can the state of the turf which dries out quickly. It might also be worth remembering that this year’s field is stronger than usual. Typically it falls in a period (late May) when the top performers are managing their schedule – this season, of course, they are desperate to play.
Angles to consider 1/ Greens in Regulation As mentioned, Chris Kirk in 2015 proved to be otherwise (he ranked 62nd for GIR and first for Putting Average), but most winners rely on a superb tee to green game. The last two winners (Kevin Na and Justin Rose) led the GIR ranks and 2017 champion Kevin Kisner was second in the category. Seven of the last ten winners ranked top ten. 2/ SG: Tee to Green Further enhancing the importance of long game are the Strokes Gained stats. Last year the top seven were all 9th or better in T2G, five of the top seven repeated that in 2018, four of the top six in 2017 and each of the top five in 2016. 3/ Par 4 Performance It’s not just that there are just two par 5s at Colonial, the track’s par 4s are also key to the course’s strength. The last four winners ended the week ranked top three in Par 4 Scoring.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Jon Rahm There is plenty in the 25-year-old Spaniard’s favour. First of all the stats are good. He ranks 13th for SG: T2G this season in addition to being eighth in the field for GIR and second for Par 4s. He was second on debut in 2017, fifth a year later and has said: “It’s no secret, this is one of my favourite weeks of the year. I love the association with Mr Hogan and I love a traditional course that really tests your full game.” After seven weeks of inaction late last year he won the DP World Tour Championship. Worried about the doglegs? He isn’t – he says he loves them. Collin Morikawa There’s no course form to observe, but his stats are strong. He ranks eighth this year for SG: T2G and fifth in the field for both GIR and Par 4s. Yet to add a PGA Tour top five since his debut win last year, but he’s played his best golf when a strong tee to green game matters. Byeong-Hun An Well-known for being much better at getting the ball from A to B to C than draining it when he gets there so this week’s test suits in principle. Ranks 27th in the field for GIR, sixth for the Par 4s and 14th this term in SG: T2G. Admittedly his course form is ordinary (MC-68), but he is a past winner at Wentworth like Justin Rose.
Tips: 1-2; +4.00pts 1pt e.w. Jon Rahm at 12/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Collin Morikawa at 45/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 2nd 1pt e.w. Byeong-Hun An at 80/1 (BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 60th
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