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Last week’s visit to Colonial seemed to work from the perspective of negotiating safety protocols, so fingers remain crossed that the return of PGA Tour golf can continue to tick along in the future. What unquestionably worked was the tournament itself, which produced a high quality leaderboard, plenty of strong stories, and a thrilling conclusion. From the tree-lined fairways of Colonial Country Club the circuit makes its way to the differently tree-lined fairways of Harbour Town Golf Links. Those trees encroach on the play somewhat more, in some cases to the intense frustration of the players, and they also direct the shots in one way or another. There are added threats, too, in the lagoons within the trees and the ocean beyond them. It is only the final two holes which encounter the sea itself, but the breezes which sometimes become very gusty, will whistle through the oaks and pines. The greens add to the difficulty, being small and also made up of grainy Bermuda grass. “It’s a test of ball-shaping, positioning and patience,” said 2013 winner Graeme McDowell. “Small greens, tight fairways and wind,” added 2011 champion Brandt Snedeker. It was designed by Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus, being the latter’s first venture into architecture. In truth, it is more of a Dye test which is one reason some like it and other have their patience examined beyond repair. It plays to 7,099 yards with a par of 71. Expanding on the themes mentioned above, two-time winner Jim Furyk said: “It calls for a lot of different shots. It’s different than a lot of golf courses we play. I won’t lie to you, my strengths are very valuable here, getting the high, bombing draw and driver isn’t really in my wheelhouse and there’s not a huge need for that here.” A little like last week, therefore, we’re presented with a course that many of the world’s best – and longest – hitters would ordinarily swerve, but which circumstances demand they play. Many of those were able to thrive for large parts at Colonial, but were eventually caught out. Will the same occur this week?
Angles to consider 1/ Par 4 Performance The last four winners here have excelled in this category. CT Pan, Wes Bryan and Branden Grace all ranked first whilst Jim Furyk and Satoshi Kodaira were second. 2/ SG: Tee to Green Rather than one facet of the business of getting the ball on the green being dominant, it is the category which draws them all together which is key here. The last five winners all ranked top 11 for it and four of them were top seven. 3/ SG: Putting Slightly less important than the above, but the last five winners have ranked 16th or better on the greens. An explanation for these last two angles might be that the course has small greens – tricky to find, but when the player does he needs to make the most of those first swings of the putter.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Sung-jae Im It’s the numbers that persuade rather than the notion of an Asian hat-trick at Harbour Town. Im ranks third in the field for Par 4 Performance and is also 17th for SG: Tee to Green and 29th for SG: Putting. His only previous course performance resulted in a missed cut, but he’s been fourth at Innisbrook (which calls on shot-making), a winner at PGA National (which calls on playing in a breeze) and warmed up with tenth last week at Colonial. Webb Simpson Missed the cut last week, but it was hardly disastrous with a second round of 69. Earlier this season he notched a win in Phoenix, his numbers are good (first for Par 4s, 15th SG: Tee to Green, 28th SG: Putting) and he has a fine course record with six top 20s including play-off defeat in 2013 and fifth in 2018. (Like Im and Simpson, the numbers liked Patrick Reed, but at similar prices his lack of any course form in three visits saw him left out.) Adam Hadwin The first pointer came from the rankings. He’s fourth for Par 4 Performance, 31st for SG: Tee to Green and 28th for SG: Putting. He’s made three cuts in four starts at Harbour Town, without a top 20, but he did rank first for SG: T2G in 2017. Being a past winner at Innisbrook is something of a hint and he opened nicely last week with a 65.
Tips: 1-2; +44.00pts 1pt e.w. Sung-jae Im at 33/1 (888Sport, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) mc 1pt e.w. Webb Simpson at
40/1 (Boylesport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 1st 1pt e.w. Adam Hadwin at 150/1 (BetFred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 41st
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