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A distinct difference this week as the PGA Tour makes the leap across the country from the West Coast to the East. Some might quibble that Mexico City is not quite the same as the Californian cliff tops, but it was Poa Annua grass on the greens and that’s the key factor. The Florida courses which will host the action over the next few weeks will feature Bermuda grass and, just like the bumpy meadow grass, there are golfers who love it and others who loathe it. Other factors to keep in mind in Florida is the ability to perform in the wind – it can blow there and usually does. PGA National’s Champion Course is a par-70 originally designed by Tom Fazio, but which had had extensive renovations by Jack Nicklaus this century – indeed, the closing holes are named The Bear Trap. No less than 14 of the 18 holes feature water and big numbers are possible. It has hosted a major championship and that is apparent in the scoring – this is not a birdie blitz venue but a place to fight for par. Padraig Harrington, winner in 2015 said of it: “Obviously the difficulty of the golf course puts me, I think puts everybody under pressure, but I tend to play a little bit better when I’m forced into that. It narrows my focus. It’s not that — nobody looks forward to hitting the tee shot on No. 6 here, but I tend to do well on holes like that.” Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler and Martin Kaymer have all praised the fact that it is a ball-striker’s challenge. Angles to consider 1/ SG Tee to Green As that noted tough test of the long game, PGA National has drawn out the ball-strikers. Last year eight of the top 11 ranked 12th or better in this category, in 2018 five of the top six were top ten and in 2016 all of the top five were also top ten. 2/ Scrambling And when the long game fails it’s imperative the par is saved, but here’s a curiosity: SG Around the Green doesn’t feature among winners or those high on the leaderboard. Yet good scrambling number have cropped up. And it is not merely the fact that the last five winners here excelled in saving par (all ranked better than tenth), so did many of those who occupied the top ten and places too. In 2015 three of the top five and six of the top ten ranked top ten for Scrambling. In 2016 it was four of the top five and six of the top nine. In 2017 seven of the top ten, in 2018 six of the top ten and last year three of the top five.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Tommy Fleetwood The stats like him: he ranked 13th for SG: Tee to Green in 2019 and first for Scambling. His only previous experience of the course saw him finish fourth two years ago and he’s enjoyed Florida. He has four finishes of seventh or better in his last five starts there and five top tens in just eight visits. Wins at Le Golf National (lots of water) and Abu Dhabi (like Paris a decent tee to green test) are to be noted. Byeong-Hun An Another who is a fine fit with the numbers. He ranked seventh Tee to Green last year and 13th for Scrambling. He was fifth on debut at the tournament in 2018 and was 36th last year. The fact he’s not going to need to thrive with the putter is good news – play-off loser on the Nicklaus track in the Memorial. Harris English He was 18th on debut in the tournament in 2012, but was actually contending that week (econd after 54 holes). Last year he added a finish of 12th. He closed 2019 with four top six finishes in six starts and was 16th last time out at the Phoenix Open. He currently lies in the top 20 for the two vital stats in this year’s rankings.
Tips: 2-1; +6.40pts 1pt e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 12/1 (Befair SB, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 3rd 1pt e.w. Byeon Hun An at 40/1 (Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 4th 1pt e.w. Harris English at 60/1 (Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 17th
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