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It’s been a long, long wait but finally the 2020 Masters is upon us. Perhaps a decent way of gauging the wait is that it seems almost an eternity ago when Tiger Woods pulled off a thrilling win in the last one. Tiger’s fifth Green Jacket was his first at Augusta National since 2005 but offered a reminder that past course form usually counts for an awful lot. The big guess this year is whether it will quite as important. In other words, will Augusta National play a lot differently to how it does in April? All will be revealed but the smart guess is that it will play longer but much of the fundamental test will remain the same. That means strong iron play, a sharp short game and an ability to handle lightning fast greens. Woods became the first 40-something to take the Green Jacket since Mark O’Meara in 1998 but Patrick Reed (2018) and Jordan Spieth (2015) were both in their 20s. There are a plethora of Augusta stats and angles although one of the best-known is that no debutant has taken the title since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Can that change this year? There are some highly-regarded first-timers such as recent US PGA winner Collin Morikawa but it’s still a huge ask to win the Masters off the bat. Bryson DeChambeau – the newly-crowned US Open winner – heads the market with most bookies although both Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm are quoted at single-figure prices elsewhere. A Tiger repeat? That’s 40/1. Rory McIlroy is on offer at 14s to win his first. Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained: Approach The last five leaders in the SG: Approach category at the Masters went on to finish 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 1st. That confirms the much-quoted line from Jack Nicklaus that Augusta National is a “second-shot course”. 2/ Course form Going back to 2008 and eight of the last 12 Masters winners had enjoyed a previous top 10 in the tournament. Augusta National is a place that gets in your head. Do well there once and confidence rises dramatically on future visits. 3/ Current form Yep, don’t rule out hot recent play either. Go through past Masters winners and almost all had dropped a big hint with a recent top 10 or 20. Augusta National is not a place to suddenly find form. 3/ Bogey Avoidance It’s easy to get caught up in the idea that winning the Green Jacket is all about racking up the birdies on those back-nine holes, especially the short par 5s. However, limiting the mistakes is huge. Seven of the last 12 winners ranked No.1 in Bogey Avoidance for the week and Tiger became the 11th in the last 12 not to rack up a bogey count (inc. doubles or worse) of more than 10 over during his win. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Tony Finau Finau has ranked in the top three for Strokes Gained: Approach in both this season’s majors. He’s on a run of five straight top 25s, three of those top 11s, while his two previous visits to Augusta National have resulted in a fifth and a 10th. Hideki Matsuyama Matsuyama pops up in all the above categories. He was runner-up at the Houston Open on Sunday after a 66-63 weekend finish and has three top 11 finishes and a top 20 in his last five Masters starts. Last season he was fifth in SG: Approach and 21st in Bogey Avoidance so has the ideal game to do well at Augusta National. Bubba Watson Alongside his two wins in 2012 and 2014, Bubba has also produced some strong play in recent years with 5th and 12th in the last two Masters. He knows how to eliminate the errors at Augusta National and returns there with impressive recent results (4-7-31) and impressive SG: Approach numbers. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Tony Finau at 28/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 38th 1pt e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 30/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 13th 1pt e.w. Bubba Watson at 28/1 (Hills 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9) 57th
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