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El Camaleon in Mexico is the venue as the PGA Tour stages its final 72-hole action of a very bizarre 2020 – the Mayakoba Golf Classic. This is the 14th visit to the popular 7,017-yard par 71 at Playa del Carmen and, once again, weather could have its say. Thursday’s play was wiped out last year, leading to a Monday finish, and a repeat could be on the cards with thunderstorms predicted for the first two days. While inconvenient, lots of rain in these parts doesn’t mean lots of wind so players should have very scoreable conditions with another winning score of around -20 expected. Two standout stars front the betting. Justin Thomas – tied 23rd on his only previous appearance in 2014 – is the clear favourite while Brooks Koepka will be seeing the course in competitive play for the first time since a missed cut seven years ago. While those two can win here (and, indeed, anywhere), traditionally this course does not suit power hitters. That was confirmed last year when Brendon Todd shot 20-under to win despite ranking 79th out of 82 in Driving Distance. Before that, Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire, Pat Perez and Graeme McDowell had hoisted the silverware while the first three winners were all nudgers, Fred Funk, Brian Gay and Mark Wilson. Of the 13 editions, McDowell is the only non-American to have come out on top. Angles to consider 1/ Greens In Regulation Last year’s winner, Todd, ranked third for GIR. That continued a trend. Kuchar was 9th, Kizzire 7th and Perez 11th. Prior to that Charley Hoffman was 4th in 2014 and Harris English 10th the year before. Hitting over 75% of the greens is just about a must for any potential winner. 2/ Performance on similar tracks The greens this week are Paspalum which are much more similar to Bermuda than they are Bent. We’ve seen plenty of recent action on Paspalum/Bermuda and courses such as Waialae (Sony Open), Harbour Town (Heritage) and Corales GC (Corales Puntacana) all throw up plenty of correlating course form. Port Royal (Bermuda) is the latest as the two winners there, Brian Gay and Brendon Todd, are both winners here. 3/ Par 4 Performance After Todd co-led this category in 2019, four of the last six winners have now ranked 1st in Par 4 Performance. Another, Perez, was second. This is a Par 71, not a 70, but scoring on the Par 4s is still hugely important. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Joaquin Niemann Checking the GIR stat form over the last eight weeks and the Chilean ranks T1st with 77.1%. He’s also sixth this season in Par 4 Performance and, as for correlating form, a fifth place at Harbour Town earlier in the campaign offers a nice nod. He’s yet to find his best at El Camaleon but the planets look aligned this time. Will Zalatoris Alongside Niemann at the top of that eight-week GIR form table is youngster Zalatoris, who flashed his prodigious talent with a sixth place at the US Open. Since then, he’s had a T8 (Corales Puntacana) and a T16 (Bermuda Championship) on correlating tracks so the signs looks good for his debut at El Camaleon. He ranked 4th for Par 4 scoring at Corales. Charles Howell III Howell III is a definite course specialist at El Camaleon; he’s racked up three top 10s and a further five top 20s in 11 appearances. That liking for coastal courses also shows up in a fantastic Sony Open record (10 x top 10s) and his irons looked sharp when ranking 2nd for GIR at the RSM Classic last time. He looks value at 66/1. Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Joaquin Niemann at 33/1 (William Hill, Sky Bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 23rd 1pt e.w. Will Zalatoris at 33/1 (William Hill, Sky Bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 52nd 1pt e.w. Charles Howell III at 66/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 23rd
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