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Preview & Tips

 
 
The Northern Trust
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It looked highly unlikely at one point but here we are, about to start the three-week burst of FedEx Cup Playoff action.

A field of 125 players have made it through to the post-season and the venue for the opening event, The Northern Trust, is a familiar one.

TPC Boston has played host to 16 PGA Tour tournaments since opening in 2002, 12 of those in these very playoffs.

Although not used last year, there is a bank of form stretching back from 2018 and the last course four winners – Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler – show that the cream often rises to the top.

The par 71 was designed by Arnold Palmer but came in for a redesign by Gil Hanse and PGA Tour star Brad Faxon in 2008.

It remains, though, a track that players can attack and go low on so birdies and the odd eagle will need to flow this week.

“This golf course warrants a lot of ball-striking and great putting. It’s just different in regards to some of the shots you’ve got to hit on certain holes. And for me I like that. It suits me well,” said DeChambeau ahead of the 2018 edition before putting the theory into practice.

That week, ‘The Scientist', ranked 6th in both Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and SG: Putting while finishing 2nd on the All-Around.

 

Angles to consider

1/ All-Around

Looking at the stats from past years and it appears that all aspects of the game need to work well for success. That’s shown by all of the top two finishers in the last four years ranking in the top four for All-Around.

2/ Class tells

Of the 16 events contested at TPC Boston, 11 times the winner was ranked in the top 15 of the world rankings. That said, the World No.1 has managed to win just twice – Tiger in 2006 and Rory in 2012.

3/ Make lots of birdies

The par 71 yields plenty of low scores. The average winning total is a fraction better than 17-under and Henrik Stenson (2013), Charley Hoffman (2010) and Vijay Singh (2008) all won with 22-under at TPC Boston.

 

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.

Webb Simpson

After a slightly flat week at the US PGA, Simpson returned to perhaps his favourite course to finish third at the Wyndham Championship on Sunday. A winner of two of his last nine PGA Tour events, the American also has a victory at TPC Boston after landing the 2011 Deutsche Bank Championship here in 2011. He’s been patchy since at the course but opened 68-63 last year and his current stats suggest he can flourish again. Simpson is World No. 6, ranks 2nd in Birdie Average and 3rd on the All-Around.

Tony Finau

That second PGA Tour win still won’t come but Finau is a punter’s each-way friend – especially when the elite gather. In his last four starts, the big hitter has a fourth in the PGA, eighth at Memorial and third at the 3M Open so is in fine form. He also made the top four here two years ago and enters the week as World No. 15, 13th in Birdie Average and 21st for All-Around.

Patrick Cantlay

Cantlay also offers each-way appeal at 30/1 as he fits the bill perfectly. The Californian is World No. 12 and ranks 6th for both Birdie Average and All-Around. After middle rounds of 68-66 at the PGA, he faded in round four but a big result looks around the corner and he can step up on two decent previous efforts here – T13 and T24.

 

Tips:  1-2; +1.00pts

1pt e.w. Webb Simpson at 30/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  6th

1pt e.w. Tony Finau at 33/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  mc

1pt e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 30/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  mc