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Finally, the wait for is over. When Shane Lowry lifted the Claret Jug at Royal Portrush in July 2019, it was inconceivable that we’d have reached this point without any further major action. A worldwide pandemic decided that but golf has managed to return despite the concerns. And it means, having moved to a new May slot last year, the PGA Championship is back to its previous August date. Brooks Koepka has won the last two editions – firing 18-under at Bellerive in August 2018 and -8 at Bethpage Black in May 2019 – and looks for a fifth major title on the back of his tied second place to Justin Thomas in last week’s WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. This year, the PGA takes place at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco, the first time the event has been played in California since 1995. It’s not a complete unknown to punters as it staged the 2015 WGC-Match Play won by Rory McIlroy. Those with longer memories will also recall the course hosting the 2005 WGC-American Express Championship and the 2009 Presidents Cup. Tiger Woods beat John Daly in a play-off at the former while Woods scored five points out of five when the US dominated the Internationals 19.5-14.5 in the latter. This year the course will play as a par 70 measuring 7,234 yards although cool temperatures in this part of the world means the ball won’t fly. Talking about the course in the official media day, Koepka said: “It’s a big boy’s golf course. You have to be able to hit it long. It’s very difficult. It’s a major championship course.” Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained: Off The Tee Despite lack of course form, two great drivers (Rory McIlroy and Gary Woodland) contested the final of the WGC-Match Play here in 2015 while, winding back to 2005, four of the top five finishers ranked in the top 10 for SG: Off The Tee. 2/ Par 4 Performance As with last week’s WGC-FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, TPC Harding Park is a par 70 so we have 12 par 4s instead of the usual 10. St. Jude winner Justin Thomas ranked 2nd in Par 4 Scoring last week while joint runner-up Tom Lewis ranked 1st so performance on the par 4s really was vital and should be again here. 3/ California form We don’t get too many majors in California but there is plenty of location form available given how many PGA Tour events are played in the Golden State. Gary Woodland won the US Open at nearby Pebble Beach last year and his California form coming in was 9-MC-12-5 so it looks a relevant factor. 4/ Majors record While some players have taken to the majors like ducks to water (our first two picks for example), others such as Bryson DeChambeau (no top 10s in 14 attempts) just haven’t found the right formula. Past major success often leads to more. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Xander Schauffele The local Californian took sixth place last week and that included the serious inconvenience of a quadruple bogey. He enters this week with an ideal profile, ranking 7th this season in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and 5th in Par 4 Scoring Average. Schauffele was third in the US Open at nearby Pebble Beach to show he performs well on home Cali turf and that forms part of a strong body of work in the majors. He’s already had five top sixes in the 11 he’s played so his game is ideally suited to the biggest events. Tony Finau Finau may have a reputation for struggling to get over the line but he remains a good each-way punt at big prices in major championships. The man from Utah has six top 10s in his 15 majors and looks a good fit at Harding Park. He’s 36th in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, 10th Tee To Green and 12th for Par 4 Scoring. A fan of coastal golf, he has a strong record in California too, his last 10 starts there showing four top sixes and a further three top 15s. Daniel Berger Berger secured us a profit last week when tied second at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and, in his sparkling current form, he has to be followed again. Beyond his hot recent play, Berger again has the right credentials. He’s a solid 44th Off The Tee, ranks 5th for Par 4 Scoring and his last visit to California resulted in a top five at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Form in the majors? He has top 10s in the Masters and US Open (T6 2018) and was T12 in this event two years ago after sitting T4 at halfway. Tips: 2-1; +6.45pts 1.5pts e.w. Xander Schauffele at 16/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11) 10th 0.75pts e.w. Tony Finau at 50/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9) 4th 0.75pts e.w. Daniel Berger at 40/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9) 13th
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