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There are few settings quite as spectacular in golf as the Monterey Peninsula, home to the AT&T Classic Pebble Beach Pro-am. In addition to the title host the equally picturesque Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula Country Club are in use for a week that is a little harder to watch than it should be – a consequence of the amateur element which slows the pace down. (Hard to believe that the PGA Tour could play slower than the rest of the year, but this week it is very possible.) As we will discover when delving a little deeper with the angles to consider, this event very much fits into this West Coast Swing. If the notion of playing golf in gusty (and possibly cold) conditions, on Californian cliff tops, overlooking the Pacific Ocean, all played out on tricky Poa Annua greens, with traditional design tests feels familiar then it’s because the field faced a similar challenge two weeks ago at Torrey Pines. Riviera, host of next week’s Genesis Open, is not identical, but it also shares some elements with Pebble. Last year witnessed a fifth tournament victory for Phil Mickelson. Would it prompt a career Indian Summer we wondered? It appeared not when he didn’t make another top ten until last week – how typical of the 49-year-old to find a bit of form ahead of this week.
Angles to consider 1/ Californian Poa Form In the last ten years three names dominate – Phil Mickelson (a five-time tournament winner, twice in the last decade), Brandt Snedeker (another double winner in the decade) and Dustin Johnson (winner in 2010 and also in 2009). Clearly all like the conditions, but they’ve all thrived at Torrey Pines too – more ocean-top golf, breezy, with Poa Annua greens. But it goes further. Of the other recent winner, D.A. Points had twice finished top ten at Torrey ahead of his win here, Jimmy Walker was dynamite in these conditions ahead of his win, Vaughn Taylor had been top ten the year before, Jordan Spieth was strong in California. (Ted Potter was less assured on Poa but he had won in California on the second tier.) 2/ Course Form Kind of related to the above point, but worth adding that each of the last ten winners has previously recorded a top 20 finish in the tournament (or at Pebble Beach in the US Open). 3/ Par 4 Performance The last five winners have been exceptionally strong on these holes. Two of them ranked first in the field and the other three were second. 4/ Finding Greens Pebble Beach has small greens so finding them is important. The last five winners all ranked ninth or better for Greens in Regulation and they were all also ranked 22nd or better for SG Tee to Green. Last year the top five were all 12th or better in that latter category.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Patrick Cantlay The 27-year-old hails from California and was 9th on his tournament debut back in 2013 then 21st in the U.S. Open after a poor start. His general form in the state is also strong, with fourth and 15th from his last two visits to the Genesis Open. He ranks fifth in the field for Par 4 Performance and is eighth for SG Tee to Green for the season. Forgiving his 34th last time out in the Middle East because before that he was second in the Shriner’s Open and fourth at the Tournament of Champions. Brandt Snedeker The Tennessee man rubber-stamped his fondness for playing golf on the Californian coast when third at Torrey Pines two weeks ago, a tenth top ten there in 15 starts (two of them wins). He has another two wins at Pebble Beach and ranks eighth for Par 4 Performance in the field. Chez Reavie It’s not been a good beginning to the season for the man who was fifth in the Tour Championship. Ten appearances have yet to reap one top 20, but where better to kick start his campaign? He was in-contention at this event through 54 holes in 2016, was second in 2018 and was also third when he returned to the host course for last year’s U.S. Open. For a man in a slump a vivid reminder of time when he mixed it with the best in the world might be a tonic. The poor form prompts an inflated price and one worth taking. His Par 4 Performance is solid enough (38th) and he was 29th in last year's SG T2G.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 2pt win Patrick Cantlay at 12/1 (Bet365) 11th 1pt e.w. Brandt Snedeker at 25/1 (Unibet, 888Sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) mc 1pt e.w. Chez Reavie at 80/1 (Unibet, 888Sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 25th
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