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How do you view the Waste Management Phoenix Open? The biggest party in golf? Or the most badly behaved drunken nonsense in the sport? Most of us, of course, fall somewhere in-between, but there are plenty in both camps. One makes lots of noise, the other does a lot of chuntering. But we can leave that to them and concentrate, instead, on trying to identify the winner on a course that has lots of history because the tournament was first played at TPC Scotsdale in 1987 and has proved itself a popular spot. Of course the wild parties on and off site are part of the attraction, most notably the completely-surrounded par-3 16th hole which generates lots of noise, both literal and in the social media sense. But don’t overlook the driveable par-4s and the attackable par-5s. They are an intrinsic element of both the Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish design and a vital clue as to the destiny of the trophy because golfers with the capacity to make hay on those holes tend to succeed by week’s end. The par for the course is 71 and the greens are TifEagle Bermuda overseeded with Bent, Poa and Rye grass. There was a time when this event could be won by more or less anyone, but in the last five years it has been landed by top drawer, or not-yet-quite-top-drawer, performers. Major machine Brooks Koepka set that trend in motion by winning in 2015, his lookalike and winner of a major last year Gary Woodland triumphed in 2018, in-between Hideki Matsuyama went back-to-back and Rickie Fowler won 12 months ago, the latter two being on the shortlist for best-golfer-yet-to-win-a-major, of course.
Angles to consider 1/ Course form This is a common refrain on the PGA Tour, but it’s frequently the case rather than lazy thinking and it definitely bears up at Scottsdale. 11 of the last 15 winners had a finish of 11th or better on the course before their win (most significantly better than that). An oddity is that three of the four exceptions were course debutants. 2/ SG: Tee to Green Last year the top six all ranked 21st or better in this category, in 2018 seven of the top eight were 22nd or better, in 2017 all the top six were 15th or higher and in 2016 the top five were all seventh or better. 3/ Going for the Green In all, 12 of the last 15 winners here have ranked top ten during a season in this category. It hints at the course dynamic discussed above. To prevail here players need to be bold and aggressive with their shot selection.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Justin Thomas The stats say that he’s a great fit for this examination. He ranked second for SG: Tee to Green last season (and is fourth this term) whilst he was ninth for Going for the Green. In the early years he misfired a little on the course landing two T17th with a pair of missed cuts in-between. But he was in contention all week last year, posting 64-66-68-72 and the knowledge that a sub-70 round four might have won him the title could grate beneficially. It also helps that he’s a three-time winner in his last seven starts. Bubba Watson He ranked first last year for Going for the Green and has always featured high in the rankings so it’s not surprising that his course record is strong. He has eight top 25 finishes from 13 starts, with a pair of seconds and fourth last year. He ranked a solid 38th for SG: T2G last year. Last week he was tied sixth at Torrey Pines and had the look of a putter who might have drained more attempts on smoother, quicker greens. Gary Woodland The 2018 winner doesn’t need to prove his course credentials and although he missed the cut last week at Torrey Pines his form ought not to be a concern. Before that he was seventh in the Tournament of Champions and contended in the Hero World Challenge before Christmas. He was fifth for Going for the Green last year (a category he often thrives in) and was 16th for SG: Tee to Green last year.
Tips: 1-2; +1.60pts 2pt win Justin Thomas at 9/1 (Skybet, Unibet) 3rd 1pt e.w. Bubba Watson at 33/1 (William Hill, Unibet, 888Sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 3rd 1pt e.w. Gary Woodland at 33/1 (Unibet, 888Sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 40th
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