Preview & Tips

A satisfactory way to round off the PGA Tour’s money-spinning FedEx Cup Playoffs has been hard to find.

The Tour Championship’s host course, East Lake, is a deserving venue but how best to find a winner from the exclusive 30-man field?

Tour officials have winced down the years as players have muttered that they had no idea if they’d won the massive jackpot or not. And it was fair comment. Could someone who had started the week in 15^th really have a handle on all the permutations required for them to come out on top?

In the latest effort to simplify things, last year there was a change in format with a staggered start employed. The FedEx Cup leader didn’t just have a favourable set of permutations; he actually had hard scores on the board in the form of a start.

So, No.1 ranked Justin Thomas started at -10, two clear of Patrick Reed in second and three in front of Brooks Koepka in third. That seemed fair on one hand but left those ranked 26^th-30^th a full ten shots behind before a ball had been struck.

With the most in-form players starting with an advantage, the list of possible winners seemed to shrink although fifth-ranked Rory McIlroy did manage to come from five back to scoop the title.

The same system is used this year and the starting scores look like this:

-10 Dustin Johnson
-8 Jon Rahm
-7 Justin Thomas
-6 Webb Simpson
-5 Collin Morikawa
-4 Daniel Berger, Harris English, Bryson DeChambeau, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama
-3 Brendon Todd, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Reed, Xander Schauffele, Sebastian Munoz
-2 Lanto Griffin, Scottie Scheffler, Joaquin Niemann, Tyrrell Hatton, Tony Finau
-1 Kevin Kisner, Abraham Ancer, Ryan Palmer, Kevin Na, Marc Leishman
Ev Cameron Smith, Viktor Hovland, Mackenzie Hughes, Cameron Champ, Billy Horschel

Dustin Johnson leads the way although he may be a little wary having finished 30^th and last 12 months ago.

East Lake is a testing par 70 playing to 7,385 yards and has Bermuda greens.

There are two betting markets this week – to win the FedEx Cup and to shoot the lowest 72-hole score. The latter, which is ultimately irrelevant, is hard to keep track of and motivation levels are questionable so we’ll stick to the simple strategy of cheering on our selections from the actual main leaderboard that we’ll see on screen.

Angles to consider

1/ Course Form

Before last year, five of the previous ten winners had already recorded a top-two finish at East Lake. In other words, course form was showing up strongly. That trait was franked further as the two names at the top of the final standings were Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele, the 2016 and 2017 winners respectively.

2/ Current Form

From 2011 until 2018, every winner had enjoyed a top two finish in the previous three months ahead of winning this event. McIlroy again flew the flag for current form having won the Canadian Open in June and posted a fourth and a sixth in two of his previous three events. It’s hard to simply find form on a tough track like East Lake.

3/ Strokes Gained Tee to Green

Last year’s top three finishers, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Paul Casey, ranked 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th respectively in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green. That highlighted a previous theme, with the 2016 and 2017 winners both ranked 2^nd for SG: TTG. By contrast, three of the last four winners weren’t ranked in the top ten (out of just 30 remember) for SG: Putting.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.

Jon Rahm

Rahm got better each day at Olympia Fields last week, timing his run to perfection (75-71-66-64) to win a playoff and secure his second win in six starts. Top-ranked Dustin Johnson is the man with the target on his back this week and Rahm (7^th on debut here in 2017 and 4^th after 54 holes in 2018) can do what he did in Europe last year and capture the final event to lift the overall prize. Some outstanding Tee To Green numbers enhance his claims further.

Webb Simpson

Simpson boasts two top fours and a fifth at East Lake and has the required current form too after a third and a sixth in his last two starts. He’s also ranked in the top 12 for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green in three of his last four starts.

Hideki Matsuyama

The Japanese star has a pair of top fives in the last four years at East Lake and has shown a liking for Bermuda greens when twice landing the Waste Management Phoenix Open. He returned to something near his best form with third place last week, ranking 2^nd for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green.

Tips  0-3; -6.00pts

All in the main FedEx Cup winner market

2pts win Jon Rahm at 3/1 (William Hill, Betfred)  4th

1pt e.w. Webb Simpson at 11/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5)  12th

1pt e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5)  15th