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The re-opening of the season is beginning to have a touch of deja vu about it, albeit in very agreeable fashion. As at Colonial two weeks ago and Harbour Town last week, we have a very fine field ready to attack a course with something of an old-fashioned feel. In the first of those two events plenty of the world’s elite contended, but were eventually bested by players from a grade one or two below them and it’s made for excellent viewing. The very top players in the world would, of course, ordinarily have been happy to play one of these events, but all three is somewhat unusual and there is a sense that they are like the drivers of extremely high-powered cars a little frustrated to be limited by tight and twisting country lanes. What of this week? Let’s take a look at some of the comments about the Pete Dye-designed TPC River Highlands. “It doesn’t demand a lot of length,” said Wes Bryan. “But you have to work the ball both ways.” Russell Knox, a past champion, hints at something vital here – in at least one round the winner will need to go low: “If you tee off in the morning, you can shoot a mega low score. But as the day goes on, the course changes and shooting under-par can be a great score.” Rory McIlroy’s words reveals that struggle (mentioned above) for the world’s best: “You feel like you have wedge in hand every hole, but if you don’t put yourself in position it can be tricky. You need to be accurate and not super aggressive. Reign it in, know there’s plenty of opportunities, stay patient.” The Connecticut track is a par-70 layout at 6,841 yards with bentgrass greens.
Angles to consider 1/ Par 4 Performance The last five winners here have been relentless on these holes, every single one of them (Chez Reavie, Bubba Watson twice, Jordan Spieth and Russell Knox) ranking first for the week on the par 4s. In that time Daniel Berger and Paul Casey made play-offs and their ranks in this category were fourth and third. 2/ SG: Tee to Green Reavie last year and Spieth in 2017 topped this category, Watson in 2018 was second (he was sixth in 2015) and Knox in 2016 was fifth. So that’s all five winners in the top six and those two play-off losers ranked ninth and first. 3/ Course form It does not appear to be essential because Spieth won on debut, whilst Knox had done little on the track, much like Freddie Jacobson in 2011. But the other seven of the last ten winners had at least displayed the capacity to shoot low numbers. Reavie had carded a pair of 65s, Watson signed off with a 63 the year before his first win, Kevin Streelman (2014 winner) had shot a 62 and a pair of 63s, Ken Duke had opened 65-66 to lie second at halfway before his win in 2013 and Marc Leishman (2013 champion) had carded 66 to make the cut the year before his win.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Bubba Watson Always happy to support Bubba on a course he enjoys. He’s won both here and at Riviera three times, and also twice at Augusta. His stats are so-so (49th for SG Tee to Green and 25th for Par 4s), but set alongside that dazzling trio of wins that’s fine. He’d only played Harbour Town once before last week, shooting 75-74 to miss the cut, so his 69-68-73-65 sits well enough as form, especially after his T7th the week before at Colonial (which also ended with a 65). Justin Rose The Englishman hasn’t landed a win here yet, but he’s been close. In fact, he’s had two 54 hole leads (in 2005 and 2010) and, in all, five of his eight visits have reaped top 20s. He made a shocking start to the season which explains his ropey seasonal stats rankings. But, in finishing 3-14 in the last fortnight, he has been very strong in SG: T2G and was good on the par 4s at Colonial. Sung-jae Im The Korean ranks 19th for SG: T2G and second for Par 4 Performance this season, but some will be concerned that he missed the cut last week. I’m not so sure. In fact, a glance at his top ten finishes on the PGA Tour shows that he frequently precedes it with a distant effort. A prodigious worker, perhaps a bad week acts as a kick up the bum. He was T10th at Colonial, a slightly better form guide that last week, and closed with a 66 on his course debut last year (T21st).
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Bubba Watson at 33/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) mc 1pt e.w. Justin Rose at 28/1 (Boylesport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Sung-jae Im at 35/1 (Boylesport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 58th
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