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The 120th US Open heads to famed Winged Foot in New York. Traditionally the toughest of the four majors, that tag has rather been lost in recent years with winning scores such as -16 (Brooks Koepka at Erin Hills in 2017 and Rory McIlroy at Congressional in 2011) and -13 (Gary Woodland at Pebble Beach last year). And the belief that you needed to be a straight hitter rather than a long one was blown apart despite many so-called experts still lazily pedalling it. The stats show that 12 of the last 16 winners ranked higher in Driving Distance than Driving Accuracy and 12 were in fact in the top 10 for DD. The explanation? Everyone misses fairways so it’s better to smash it further and be closer to the green when playing your second shot from long rough. Having said all that, Winged Foot – a hugely examining 7,477-yard par 70 - could be a return to the US Open in its purest form. The two recent US Opens played in the north-west of the United States were tough, as shown by Dustin Johnson winning at Oakmont with -4 and Koepka lifting the silverware with +1 at Shinnecock in 2018. Winged Foot has some similar attributes in terms of style, geography and greens and its own history proves scoring can be brutal. That’s shown by Geoff Ogilvy winning the last US Open held there in 2006 with 5-over. So, this looks a week to dig deep and grind it out. Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained: Off The Tee Not only are the fairways narrow, the course has length too. Therefore, the golden ticket is an accurate hitter who can get it out there. Strokes Gained: Off The Tee looks a good metric at Winged Foot. 2/ Scrambling The last two winners of majors at Winged Foot – Davis Love in the 1997 US PGA and Geoff Ogilvy in the 2006 US Open – both ranked fifth for Scrambling. Greens will be missed on a regular basis this week so short game is massively important. 3/ Current form A tough US Open isn’t a place to find your game so strong recent displays look a necessity. It’s backed up by the stat which shows that nine of the last 10 US Open champions had posted a top 10 in one of their three previous starts. 4/ Regional form Those past Winged Foot winners – Love and Ogilvy – had shown some previous strong form in the north-west of the US. Conditions differ markedly as the Tour moves around the country so those with form in New York/New Jersey/Pennsylvania could have an advantage. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Hideki Matsuyama The Japanese golfer stood firm in the tough test at the BMW Championship a few weeks ago, his 2-under total good enough to secure tied third. He was 2nd for Scrambling that week and 11th for SG: Off The Green so it was the ‘right’ kind of performance. In the two recent majors played in New York – the 2018 US Open and 2019 PGA – he’s finished tied 16th in both while he was a notable fourth in the 2016 PGA at Baltusrol. Patrick Reed If it’s a regional specialist we’re looking for, Reed has to be very near the top of the list. He’s won two FedEx Cup Play-off events in New York/New Jersey, was fourth in brutal conditions in the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock and also placed T13 at Baltusrol in 2016. He warmed up for Winged Foot with T7 in the Tour Championship (R4 65) where he was 1st for Scrambling and 2nd for SG: Off The Tee. Already a major winner, he thrives in elite company. Tommy Fleetwood Fleetwood’s decision to prepare for the US Open by playing the Portugal Masters looked a strange one but he actually achieved exactly what he wanted to: the Englishman found his long game again and posted a morale-boosting third. He gained an incredible 17.747 strokes Tee To Green but putted horribly. However, in his previous start he ranked 2nd for SG: Putting at the nearby Northern Trust so hopefully he can find that same warm putter. The big ‘extra’ for Fleetwood is that he’s finished second and fourth in two of his three US Open starts. The second was at Shinnecock so he boasts regional form too. Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 28/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11) 17th 1pt e.w. Patrick Reed at 33/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11) 13th 1pt e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 28/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) mc
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