|
Naturally, the great Arnold Palmer will be in everyone’s thought this week, but so, too, will another giant of the game – Tiger Woods. He was honoured by the field in last week’s WGC-Workday Championship, following his car accident earlier in the week, and the fact that he is an eight-time winner of this week’s tournament means that he will again feature in many discussions. In terms of field quality, this week is hurt by the schedule. The best players in the world are having to balance their duties, with that WGC event last week, another later in the month, THE PLAYERS Championship before that, and the Masters at the start of next month; many are resting this week as a consequence. Memories of last year’s event cannot but be affected by the knowledge that it was the final event prior to lockdown and it was a fine renewal, witnessing Tyrrell Hatton fighting his temper, a tough set-up and Marc Leishman down the back nine on Sunday. He prevailed, but Leishman’s was a strong performance in itself. Over the years Palmer created an ever-more-difficult test for this tournament with thick rough and fast greens. Looking to players quotes leads to some confusion however. Matthew Fitzpatrick has been a solid force here and says: “It’s quite penal off the tee and missing the greens. If you really hit it well tee to green you can shoot some good scores. It’s a challenge." In contrast, Rickie Fowler argues that: “It’s similar style of golf (to) Honda and (the old WGC) Mexico. It’s not too demanding off the tee as far as you’re not always having to hit drivers and it’s not too narrow.” Fowler does agree, however, that: “You do have to get the ball in the fairway.” Then: “It’s very much a second shot golf course.” Rory McIlroy has said: “I need to take advantage of the par-5s. Tiger’s won it plenty of times around here and that’s what he did, he can be conservative and play conservative for the most part, but if you make birdies on the par-5s, you’re going to be right up there.” As we’ll see below, the numbers suggest that it is the short holes which often sort the wheat from the chaff. The four of them come in at yardages of 212, 195, 217 and 211, with Score Averages of 3.259, 3.148, 3.180 and 3.241. Angles to consider 1/ Par 3 Performance The last seven winners here have excelled on the par-3s. Tyrrell Hatton and Matt Every (on defence) ranked first, Francesco Molinari and Rory McIlroy third, Marc Leishman and Jason Day fourth, Every sixth in his first win. 2/ Course form On the one hand, multiple winners here are quite common. Tiger Woods has no less than eight wins on the track and Every his recent pair. Ernie Els, Tom Kite and Loren Roberts have also notched a couple of wins. On the other hand, each of the last four winners (and eight of the last nine) had already landed a top five finish at the course. 3/ Strokes Gained Putting Hatton “only” ranked 13th in this category last year and he was the first winner since Martin Laird in 2011 not to rank top eight for SG Putting. 4/ Internationals The last five winners have all been visitors to the United States. Something to bear in mind rather than be entirely convinced about maybe. Although Collin Morikawa’s win last week was the first in Florida by a home player since 2019.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Francesco Molinari Even before he won here in 2019 the Italian had shown a fondness for the challenge with six starts, none of them reaping worse than T34th and three top tens within their number. He may not be the trustiest putter but he excelled here when winning and was 17th in SG Putting in his last outing. He has three top tens in his last four starts and currently ranks fifth in the Tour’s Par 3 score average. Charley Hoffman His first four visits here were poor, but in recent times much better. In fact he has recorded three top 15s in his last four starts, including second in 2017. He was T10th two starts ago, when putting well, and he ranked ninth in the Tour’s Par 3 score average. Marc Leishman The Aussie will have good memories of last year and will know that, but for Hatton hanging tough, he’d have landed a second win here. The first came in 2017 and he was also third in 2011. Didn’t do a great deal last week at The Concession Club, but he did putt very well (fourth for SG Putting).
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Francesco Molinari at 30/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, William Hill, BetFred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Charley Hoffman at 100/1 (William Hill, Bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 10th 1pt e.w. Marc Leishman at 40/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, William Hill, BetFred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc
|
