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Preview & Tips

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BMW Championship
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Once again, the BMW Championship decides to taunt punters by moving venue.

This time, the penultimate leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs heads to Maryland where the field is 70 strong after it was culled from 125 at The Northern Trust which finished on Monday due to bad weather.

Caves Valley is this week's venue and it’s listed as a par 72 measuring just over 7,500 yards from the tips.

Jordan Spieth has played it a number of times due to his connection with Under Armour (HQ based locally) while others are seeing it for the first time.

We have had a couple of useful player quotes to help paint the picture.

Jon Rahm hadn’t set foot on the course but his swing coach was a golf instructor there for a while.

It allowed Rahm to say: "I know it's a big property, elevation changes. Typically the venues we've played and the part of the country we play on is usually a type of golf that I like. We're talking about tree-lined, we're talking bentgrass, we're talking high rough and ball-striking."

Rory McIlroy gave this opinion after seeing the course: "First look at Caves today. It's a big ballpark, can certainly let it rip out here, hit a lot of drivers.

"I think there's been a lot of rain in the Baltimore area, so it's pretty soft, so the ball is not really going anywhere when it hits, which is good. It makes the course play nice and long, which I like.

"Yeah, it's a good track, good test. I have a few friends that are members here, and they've told me all about it and rave about the place."

This is the last chance for players to get a place in the top 30 of the FedEx Cup standings and book their place in next week’s Tour Championship.

After his win last week, Tony Finau leads the way, with Rahm, Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay and Justin Thomas rounding out the top five.

Angles to consider

1/ Driving Distance

Player comments such as McIlroy’s suggest big hitting will be an advantage. That’s backed up by the course holding the Champions Tour’s Players Championship in 2017 when big hitters, Scott McCarron and Brandt Jobe, finished first and second.  

2/ Muirfield Village link

This is a Tom Fazio design so it’s natural to look at form on his other courses. However, Cave Valley’s superintendent previously worked at Muirfield Village and brought some of his ideas to Caves Valley. Both Muirfield Village (home of the Memorial Tournament) and Caves Valley are par 72s with bentgrass greens.

3/ Current form

When there’s no direct course form, it’s a fair strategy to lean on current form and that could play out well given that last week’s course, Liberty National, also featured bentgrass greens. The FedEx Cup playoff have a history of players getting hot and staying hot.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.

Patrick Cantlay

The Californian gives it a good hit and in June he ranked 8th for Driving Distance when winning at… Muirfield Village! Cantlay has played well since and shot four rounds in the 60s to take tied 11th in last week’s Northern Trust. This par 72 with bentgrass greens looks made for him.

Tony Finau

Finau celebrated his first win in five years by having a McDonalds at 3am and is more than happy to get his game head on again. This course looks a great fit for him. He’s 32nd in Driving Distance and has reeled off four top 15s at Muirfield Village. If back-to-back wins seems a stretch, he’s certainly capable of cracking the top seven.

Joaquin Niemann

One of the Tour’s biggest hitters (12th for DD), the Chilean was runner-up in last month’s Rocket Mortgage Classic and has since added a top 10 at the Olympics and tied 17th at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational. He was sixth on his Muirfield Village debut.

Tips   1-2; +34.00pts

1.25pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 25/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  1st

1.25pts e.w. Tony Finau at 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-)  15th

0.75pts e.w. Joaquin Niemann at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  29th