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The PGA Tour returns to action after the Christmas and New Year break with a return to the Plantation Course at Kapalua. It’s a long-standing venue for the circuit, indeed they’ve been playing this tournament there since 1999, and it has proved itself a very popular spot. The course is a Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore design, and they are a respected pair of architects. The challenge they created (an unusual par-73 with four par-5s, but only three par-3s) had to take into account the potential for high wind on the lofty ocean-side location – that means that it can be a little vulnerable to low scores when the wind doesn’t blow. But it still provides a challenge because even with no gusts of wind the extreme undulations suit some and not others (and, as discussed below, those slopes take a little getting used to). When the wind does blow, going low can be a very difficult prospect. It’s also as well to keep an eye on the wind direction because it can change quickly – an adaptable player has an advantage in this regard. Brooks Koepka, not playing this week, said of the test: “You’re not going to find a slopier golf course than this. There’s so many awkward little lies: ball above your feet, below your feet, and then downhill, and then you’re hitting up the hill. Things like that you just don’t find anywhere besides maybe here and Augusta or at least that I’ve played.” Dustin Johnson ventured: “The wind is always blowing here and you really got to use the wind to help your ball get close to the hole or stop the ball or however you want to do it. It’s all about controlling the ball and hitting it solid. When the wind’s blowing this hard, you hit solid shots you can control it.” Defending champion Justin Thomas has said of the week: “The course is fun. You can make a lot of birdies on it. The limited field is nice. The rounds go by fast playing in twosomes. It's just a laid-back vibe.”
Angles to consider 1/ Putting Average The Strokes Gained: Putting rankings for the winners have not been particularly special, but the Putt Average has been. The last two winners ranked second and before them three ranked first. 2/ Strokes Gained: Tee to Green Thomas ranked second in this category and first when he won in 2017. Xander Schauffele in 2019 ranked third, with Dustin Johnson (2018) and Jordan Spieth (2017) both first. 3/ Winning form late in 2020 Four of the last five winners claimed a win in the last four months of the preceding year and the fifth should have done so (Dustin Johnson blew a huge lead in the HSBC Champions). 13 of the last 22 winner did the same. 4/ Course form The course undulations, when the tradewinds allow, permit real aggression with vulnerable short par-4s and par-5s that can be reached in two. That said, the slopes need some learning. A little like Augusta, there are areas where the ball collects near the hole and other slopes which repel it. Daniel Chopra in 2008 was the last debutant to win which Stuart Appleby, Geoff Ogilvy, Dustin Johnson and Thomas are multiple winners.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Dustin Johnson The four criteria turned up, unsurprisingly, two of the top four in the betting (Thomas and Schauffele lacked the recent win). Johnson is shorter than Bryson DeChambeau, but two factors tip the balance. His form: he won at Augusta, a second win in six starts and he hasn’t finished outside the top six in his last seven starts. And his course form: eight consecutive finishes in the top ten, two of them wins. In recent months he ranks second in the field for SG:T2G and fourth for Putting Average. Patrick Cantlay He’s strong enough in the stats (10th for SG:T2G and 13th for PA), he was a fine winner of the Zozo Championship at the end of last year and he’s impressed in his first two starts at the course: T15th in 2018 then tied fourth last year. Martin Laird A winner at Summerlin late last year, the second time he’s done that and the last time he placed here with fourth. That was his debut (in 2010) and two years later he finished second. That’s the course form and recent win ticked. His stats are not so persuasive, but 17th in the field for SG:T2G over the last 15 weeks is far from disastrous. The price more than makes up for it.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 3pts enhanced win Dustin Johnson at 13/2 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, 888Sport, Boylesport) 11th 1pt e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 18/1 (Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair SB, BetFred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 13th 0.5pt e.w. Martin Laird at 200/1 (Skybet, William Hill, BetFred, Betway 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 17th
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