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There’s something of an echo of the traditional Masters/Heritage double header about the PGA Championship/Charles Schwab fortnight that we’re halfway through. In the former the players are first brutally tested by a long major championship course and can then enjoy themselves at a much-loved course that is shorter and calls for a different dynamic. In the latter we’ve gone from the longest major championship course in history to another tight tree-lined affair with small greens. That’s far from being the only link between the two events and courses (Harbour Town last month and Colonial this week). Because if you look at the last nine winners at Colonial, eight of them also have a top 10 at Harbour Town. This makes a lot of sense because both are, as already mentioned tight tests from tee to green, both have Bermuda grass in the rough and on the fairways, both are often blustery, and both have small greens (there are differences too – Colonial has bent grass greens and is inland). Also, listen to what the players say of the Colonial examination. Jhonattan Vegas said: “This course is all about precision. It’s about thinking your way round.” Kevin Kisner added: “It’s very advantageous to be in the fairway. It’s more of a position golf course.” Asked which courses on Tour fitted his game he replied: “Here and Hilton Head (Harbour Town).” Jon Rahm has said: “It’s an old school golf course. I believe traditional golf courses give any kind of player a chance to win. It’s really kind of similar to Valderrama.” An interesting final comment because Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose are winners at both courses, Bernhard Langer has nearly done so (he lost a play-off in Fort Worth), and Freddie Jacobson and Ian Poulter have both won in Spain and finished top five in Texas.
Angles to consider 1/ Par 4 Performance The last five winners were all ranked top three for Par 4 Scoring. That makes sense because the par is 70 due to just the two long holes and the par-4s at Colonial are known for being both tight and frequently doglegged. 2/ Greens in Regulation The last four winners ranked top four for hitting the greens: precision from the tee on those doglegs and then again when taking aim at the small greens. 3/ Strokes Gained Approach and Tee to Green The latter is, for obvious reasons, a common feature of any win and, indeed, the last five winners, and playoff loser last year Collin Morikawa, all ranked top seven for that category. But the last three winners and Morikawa were all top three for SG Approach too. 4/ Harbour Town and Valderrama, but also course form In addition to those links with Harbour Town and Valderrama, six of the last 10 winners had multiple top 15 course finishes and another two had one top 15 in their log books.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Collin Morikawa He ranks first for Strokes Gained Approach, Strokes Gained Tee to Green, and Greens in Regulation this season. He’s also sixth for Par 4 Performance. He lost a play-off in this event last year and but for a dodgy short putt would have won it. He was also tied seventh at The Heritage last month and finished in the same position last week at Kiawah Island. A short price but he can win this. Charley Hoffman The Lone Ranger – in the sense that he loves the Lone Star State. He’s won in Texas on the second tier and also on the PGA Tour. He also has four seconds, including last month in the Texas Open. In all, through 57 starts there, he’s landed a top 10 25% of the time. At Colonial he is 10-for-12 at making the cut with three top 15s. He’s in fine form at the moment (six top 20s in seven starts), including fine stats in the categories that matter. He ranks ninth for SG Approach for the season, 15th for Tee to Green, 28th for Greens in Regulation and 32nd for Par 4 Scoring. He’s also got four top 20s at Harbour Town. Emiliano Grillo On record as saying that he loves the course. This season ranks 12th for SG Approach, 35th for Tee to Green, third for GIR and leads the Par 4 Scoring. He’s finished third, T19th and T24th at the course and was tied second at Harbour Town last month.
Tips: 1-2; +4.00pts 2pt win Collin Morikawa at 14/1 (William Hill, Bet365, Unibet, BetVictor) 14th 1pt e.w. Charley Hoffman at 45/1 (BF Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 3rd 1pt e.w. Emiliano Grillo at 50/1 (BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 8th
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