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As with last week, we have a 72-hole PGA Tour event played over two courses in California. Once more, the easier course is used just once while the tougher hosts both weekend rounds. But there the similarities pretty much end. Instead of the Bermuda grass greens at The American Express, this week’s Farmers Insurance is played on the more familiar West Coast strain of Poa Annua. The South Course – used for three rounds – is a beast at over 7,700 yards and will be seen again later this year when it stages the US Open for the first time since Tiger Woods’ incredible win there in 2008. With that in mind, it’s not a surprise to see two of the favourites for that event – Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy – taking part this week. However, it’s likely that the course will play softer and slower than it will in June. And that’s perhaps why more of the elite players aren’t here if the impression they get is somewhat false. Rahm won here in 2017 and overseas players have won five of the last six editions. That includes three Aussies with Jason Day landing the first prize twice and Marc Leishman edging out Rahm last year. Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained: Approach Three of the last four winners here have ranked in the top five for this category – Leishman last year, Justin Rose in 2019 and Rahm in 2017. The greens are small and finding them is important. 2/ Course form This is a deeply-ingrained trend. Last year’s winner Leishman was a two-time runner-up in this event while Rahm was second having won it in 2017. Jason Day (2018) and Brandt Snedeker (2016) were both winning the tournament for a second time and even shock 2014 winner Scott Stallings was runner-up when defending in 2015. 3/ All-Around There’s no faking it at Torrey Pines South. Rahm (2017) and Day (2018) were both ranked 1st on the All-Around when recording victory here while Rose (2019) was 3rd for AA and Leishman (2020) 5th. As a long, tough track, all parts of the game need to be strong or at least solid to achieve success. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Tony Finau Finau seems to play some of his best golf on stellar courses by the coast so it’s no surprise to check in on his course form and see a string of good results. He’s never been outside the top 25 in six starts and the last four show a fourth and two sixths. Finau was ranked 7th for SG: Approach at last week’s American Express and also 2nd on the All-Around so he ticks every box. Marc Leishman Given the importance of course form, there’s no hesitation in putting up the defending champion. The Aussie has a win, a pair of seconds and two more top 10s (including T8 in 2018). He’s returned to form in recent months with T13 at the US Masters and T4 on his last start, the Sony Open. Leishman was 13th on the All-Around at Waialae and 4th for SG: Approach John Huh California resident Huh has made seven of nine cuts at Torrey Pines and that body of work includes a sixth and an eighth. His Approach and All-Around numbers are encouraging and he comes in on a run of four top 21s in his last five starts. He looks the best outsider in the field. Tips 1-2; +1.50pts 1.5pts e.w. Tony Finau at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 2nd 1pt e.w. Marc Leishman at 33/1 (William Hill, Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 18th 0.5pts e.w. John Huh at 125/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 65th
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