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After the intensity of the US Masters, the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head comes as a welcome contrast. This is one of the most popular stops on the PGA Tour with many pros listing the quirky Harbour Town course as one of their favourites. Betting-wise it’s also stacked in the favour of the punter. Why? It’s common to see big names enter the event but also common to see them stroll round and not really challenge for the title. And, of course, their presence means getting inflated prices on some of the PGA Tour’s middleweights, who see this shorter track as a chance to shine. The odd big name can pop up and do well and Webb Simpson took the title last year. Then again, that event was held in June due to the COVID pandemic so didn’t carry that same post-Masters feel. In other ways, Simpson did fit the mould as he’s one of the elite’s shorter hitters. Previous winners here in the last 10 years include Jim Furyk, Matt Kuchar, Graeme McDowell and Branden Grace. You get the idea. Scoring was easier last year as Simpson won with -22 but course conditions are reported to be firmer for the 2021 renewal. Before Simpson, the winning scores were -12, -12, -13 and -9 so this flat, narrow course with small Bermuda greens is far from a pushover. Angles to consider 1/ Course form Davis Love won here five times, Jim Furyk has two wins and two seconds while Bob Weekley won back-to-back. Poor old Luke Donald has finished runner-up five times. In other words, this is a venue that creates course horses and time and time again they keep performing. 2/ Par 4 Performance Simpson was second in Par 4 Performance last year, playing those holes in 13-under. The top two in 2019 were tied first for Par 4s and the pattern keeps repeating. Someone with strong Par 4 stats this season has to be worth considering. 3/ Strokes Gained: Putting This always looked a good stat going into last year’s event as the last five winners had all ranked in the top 16 for SGP. The 2020 figures really backed it up with the top three finishers ranking 2nd, 5th and 1st for SGP. You need the flatstick to be working well at Harbour Town. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Kevin Kisner Kisner definitely fits the course horse description as he has a second place, a seventh and an 11th in the last six years at this event. He’s 31st in SG: Putting and also ranked in the top 25% for Par 4 Performance this season. A missed cut at the Masters can be glossed over as that’s not his sort of track; this one most definitely is. Tyrrell Hatton Hatton had something of a breakthrough week at Augusta National even though a tied 18th place finish seems unremarkable. However, that easily beat his previous Masters best of T44 and his closing 68 was the first time he’d broken 70 there. Now he comes to a course where he fired 64-63-66 over the final three rounds last year to take tied third. Also tied ninth after 54 holes on his tournament debut in 2017, the World No. 8 is ranked in the top 40 for both SG: Putting and Par 4 Performance. He likes playing by the coast and looks a little underrated at 25/1. Charley Hoffman Hoffman is in the top 30 on the FedEx Cup but didn’t quite do enough to make the Masters field. A runner-up in the Texas Open last time, he has two top eights and another couple of top 25s at Harbour Town and is known for playing well in the wind. He’s a healthy 25th in Par 4 Performance and has putted well on his last three starts on Bermuda surfaces. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 0.75pts e.w. Kevin Kisner at 50/1 (Hills, Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc 1.25pts e.w. Tyrrell Hatton at 25/1 (Hills 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 39th 1pt e.w. Charley Hoffman at 45/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 18th
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