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The recent past and near future impact heavily on the present this week. A strong run of Florida events over the last three weeks (the WGC Workday Championship, Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYER Championship) called for the world’s elite’s attendance, as does next week’s WGC Dell Match Play and the Masters a fortnight after that. Something has to give and time off this week is the consequence for many of them. This event also has a reputation for being somewhat testing. The wind blows and the PGA National host course is major championship standard so that produces something of a challenge and many will wish to store mental and physical energy rather than deplete it. The track is a par-70, originally designed by Tom Fazio with an extensive renovation by Jack Nicklaus. That means approach shots will be to the fore, as will the ability to hit them in the already mentioned blustery conditions. No fewer than 14 of the 18 holes feature water, including The Bear Trap, the late holes (15-17) which can ruin a previously good card. Rory McIlroy, a past winner here, said of the course: “You need to hit greens. It’s a ball-striker’s golf course. You have to hit fairways. You have to hit greens and you have to just take your chances when they come along.” Martin Kaymer added: “You really have to think your way around the golf course. And the wind, it’s very difficult to play. I enjoy that when you stand on the first tee, you don’t feel like you’re already four or five shots behind, because you need to make birdies. Even level par or 1-under par is a good score on this golf course.” Local man Rickie Fowler said last year: “I love this golf course. I feel like it's very demanding of the game, not always hitting driver, but you've got to get the ball in play, and very much a second-shot golf course once you do get it in the fairway.”
Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained Tee to Green Last year nine of the top 10 ranked top 10 for SG T2G, in 2019 eight of the top 11 ranked 11th or better, five of the top six in 2018 were top 10, and in 2016 all of the top five were. 2/ Scrambling Strokes Gained stats around the greens don’t show up too much, but the traditional Scrambling does. In 2015 six of the top 10 ranked top 10, it was six of the top nine in 2016, seven of the top 10 in 2017, six of them in 2018, three of the top five in 2019 and four of the top seven last year. 3/ Florida form You want to see some evidence of competence in the state – dealing with the Bermuda greens and blustery wind.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Russell Henley He excelled in the seasonal SG Tee to Green rankings last year and also in Scrambling. He’s also up there again this year. He missed the cut last week, but that might be no bad thing – a fresh mind might help this week. A past course winner and then T8th here last year. Also a winner in Florida on the Korn Ferry Tour. Did contend earlier this year, at the Sony Open. Doug Ghim He’s threatened the last two weeks, getting into contention both times before falling back. Perhaps the experience of watching his playing partner Justin Thomas win will have provided a good lesson. The Course Compatibility shows him ranking fourth in the field for Scrambling and he’s a very creditable 29th this season for SG T2G. Daniel Berger A win saver on the local man whose case looks strong. He’s always been a decent ball striker, but the stats show just how improved his short game is – he leads the Scrambling rankings this year and credited that with his win at Pebble Beach last month. Finished T9th last week at Sawgrass after a slow start. Finished second and fourth on the course. Tips: 1-1; +3.00pts 1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 30/1 (William Hil, BetFred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 3rd 1pt e.w. Doug Ghim at 55/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) mc 2pts win Daniel Berger at 11/1 (General) dns
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