Seven down, two to go.
There were nine regular PGA Tour events on the 2021/22 calendar scheduled before Christmas and this week we reach No.8 - the Houston Open.
That leaves just next week’s RSM Classic in Georgia before silly season takes over (Hero World Challenge and QBE Shootout).
The Houston Open used to occupy an April pre-Masters slot but the last two have taken place in October and November.
They produced surprise winners in Lanto Griffin (2019) and Carlos Ortiz (2020), perhaps suggesting that this is a good time for the lesser lights to sneak a win.
Only the 2020 edition was played at this week’s venue, Memorial Park Golf Course, though so there’s not much course form to go on.
This track is a Tom Doak design with a slightly unusual configuration of five par 3s and three par 5s.
It’s a par 70 measuring just over 7,400 yards and scoring is tough. In fact, it ranked the second hardest par 70 on the PGA Tour outside of the majors last season.
The course has Bermudagrass greens.
Scottie Scheffler, the second favourite in the betting this week, said: “I think the golf course kind of forces you into being patient just because you can't really miss too many greens.
“Around the greens out here is very, very difficult to get up and down and you can get into some spots where you start playing ping pong across these greens, it's brutal. Fairways and greens is definitely at a premium this week.”
Angles to consider
1/ Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
The first three home last year - Ortiz, Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama - all ranked in the top six for SG: Tee To Green. The top player in that category, Sam Burns, finished seventh.
2/ Tournament/Texas form
Although it was played at a different venue, Ortiz had also finished in the top four of the previous year’s Houston Open. Runner-up Dustin Johnson was a proven Texas performer with a run of 12 top 20s in 13 starts in the state (nine of those top 10s) culminating in a win at the World Match Play.
3/ Par 3 Performance
Looking at the six golfers who played the par 3s better than anyone else, that half-dozen produced the winner, the runner-up, a fifth and a seventh. That makes sense given that there are five Par 3s on the layout.
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Talor Gooch
The man from Oklahoma has two top fives and a pair of top 11s from just four starts this season. He ranks third in SG: Tee To Green and 23rd in Par 3 Scoring. Adding to those strong credentials are fourth places in both the last two Houston Opens, the latter coming on this week’s course after a closing 63.
Aaron Wise
Wise has been quick out of the blocks this season and boasts current form of 15-5-8-26. His stats look ideal: 8th in both SG: Tee To Green and Par 3 Scoring. There’s also the Texas link. Wise’s one PGA Tour win - the Byron Nelson - came in Texas and he was 11th on this week’s course last year.
Russell Henley
Henley and Houston go hand in hand. He won this event in 2017 and in five appearances between 2014 and 2018 he never finished worse than eighth. A tied 29th on this track last year was a decent first look. Also, Henley is ranked 4th for SG: Tee To Green so if his putter turns up (he enjoys Bermuda), he should get in the mix.
Tips: 1-2; -2.20pts
1pt e.w. Talor Gooch at 35/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 60th
