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There was no return to TPC Deere Run in 2020 – it was one of the events which fell foul of the rearrangements in the return from lockdown – so this week South Africa’s Dylan Frittelli gets a very belated opportunity to defend his title. To some degree his win was a surprise, but he was a two-time winner on the European Tour and had made eight of ten cuts ahead of his visit. He has also settled since and been consistent enough to earn a berth in World Golf Championship events. The same, alas, cannot be said of poor Michael Kim, who Frittelli succeeded as the champion. Indded, his tale is an extraordinary one of surprise win followed by inability to maintain those levels. Between the Deere Classic of 2017 and 2018 Kim made 26 starts, made nine cuts and landed one top 20 (T18th). He then won the tournament in sensational style, by no less than eight shots. Since? 65 starts, 11 cuts made, just two top 50s, a best of T32nd. Ouch. It’s a flabbergasting series of results and all the more remarkable given the utter brilliance he displayed in that middle week. So what of this week’s test? TPC Deere Run is a par-71 that plays to 7,268 yards. It’s generous from the tees, but sloppiness in that regard will cost a player because low scoring is required and it’s easy enough to achieve if the ball is in the fairway because lots of short irons and wedges will be in play. Ryan Moore is a past winner and makes a smart comment: “The course has enough angles, the holes you can force it down there a little farther, they’re pretty difficult shots, so guys who hit it significantly further than me don’t have a huge advantage.” Steve Stricker won here three times, Zach Johnson is a six-time top three finisher – get it in play, knock the short irons close, hole the putts.
Angles to consider 1/ Innisbrook It’s perhaps been less obvious in the last three winners, but players with strong form at Innisbrook have performed well at Deere Run. Jordan Spieth, John Senden, Sean O’Hair and Vijay Singh are winners at both, Ryan Moore, Steve Stricker, Jonathan Byrd and Kenny Perry had very good records at Innisbrook and won at Deere Run. 2/ Short game The last four winners have ranked second, first, second and eighth in SG Putting (in that run the top ranked player twice finished second). Three of those four also ranked first for Scrambling. 3/ Par 4s Of the last five winners only one, Bryson DeChambeau, didn’t thrive on the par-4s. The last two winners topped the category.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Russell Henley Is this Henley’s time to turn a lot of good golf into his fourth PGA Tour win and first in four years? He was third at the Honda Classic, ninth in the Heritage, then in his last two starts led the US Open through 54 holes (T13th) and was third at the same stage in the Travelers Championship (T19th). He ranked sixth in the season’s Par 4 scoring, second in the field for Scrambling the last year, his SG Approach stats have been superb for a long time, he’s solid from the tee, and he was second in the tournament in 2019 (T27th on his only other visit) when gaining over four strokes on the greens (often his flaw). Short but form and stats deserve it. Has an Innisbrook top 10. Scott Stallings Boom or bust course form (four missed cuts, four top 25s including fifth in 2017), but he’s got good SG stats off the tee, approaching and even on the greens (for him). He also scrambled well here when fifth. Solid last week when T25th at Detroit, making shot off the tee and on the green, ranking sixth for approaches. It’s also not too long ago that he found a hot putter when third at the AT&T Byron Nelson. Has a third and ninth at Innisbrook. Ryan Moore He’s not done much recently, but he has made five of his last six cuts (and seven of his last eight). The best result in those last half dozen events? Innisbrook, which he really likes. Not as much as Deere Run though: he’s missed one cut in 11, has seven top 30s and a win in 2016.
Tips: 1-2; +8.20pts 1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 20/1 (Bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) 11th 1pt e.w. Scott Stallings at 66/1 (SkyBet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 55th 1pt e.w. Ryan Moore at 66/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 2nd
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