|
A second Masters in the space of five months is a welcome treat and this one, the 85th, feels more reassuringly familiar than the 84th. The latter was won by Dustin Johnson in November. Apart from the date, there’s nothing unusual in that, seeing as he was the world number one at the time and in superb form. But his winning score of 20-under – a Masters record – did support the idea that Augusta National in the winter isn’t the same as it is in the spring. Those classic visuals are back this time with azaleas spreading colour around the course but behind the pretty shades of pink and yellow, the course this year looks ready to spit out some venom. It’s standard practice for a low-scoring Masters to be followed up by a high-scoring one as the folk in Green Jackets look to stop the accusations of the course being overpowered. Going into the 2021 edition, there are two Masters being recalled – the 2007 version won by Zach Johnson with 1-over and the 2016 event which Danny Willett took with 5-under. The firm, fast conditions this year have sparked such talk although the chance of some thunderstorms in the weather forecast could stop things getting too silly. Americans have won the last three editions with Johnson’s victory in 2020 following on from Tiger Woods’ incredible comeback triumph in 2019 and Patrick Reed’s gritty 2018 victory. DJ is the favourite again but there are four other players ranked at 12/1 or lower. They are monster-hitting Bryson DeChambeau, last week’s Texas Open champion Jordan Spieth, new Dad Jon Rahm and Players Championship victor Justin Thomas. Angles to consider 1/ Course form Perhaps the first stop when considering a potential Masters winner. Most know the Fuzzy Zoeller stat about no first-timer having won since 1979 but beyond that there are very few Augusta winners who haven’t already had a big finish there. Johnson had racked up four straight Masters top 10s before winning in 2020. 2/ Current form Augusta National is not a place to try and find your game. Johnson had form figures of 2-1-2-3-6-2 before winning last year while 2018 champion Reed also came in off the back of three straight top 10s. The four winners before that had all posted a victory earlier in the campaign. 3/ Greens In Regulation Augusta National is commonly referred to as a second-shot course and time after time the Masters winner will rank in the top half-dozen for GIR. Johnson kept that trend very much alive last year when ranked 1st for the week, hitting over 83% in the right number. 4/ Scrambling But when greens are missed, a razor-sharp short game is needed. DJ was 5th in Scrambling and it’s very hard to find a Masters winner without strong Scrambling numbers. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Webb Simpson The 2010 US Open winner has finished 10th and 5th at Augusta in the last two years and also 20th in 2018. Simpson shows up well in both Greens In Regulation and Scrambling when putting those categories into an 8-week search and he’s posted top sixes in two of his last four strokeplay starts. He looks somewhat underrated with the bookies given that strong set of credentials, and being a shorter hitter means a fast-running course will help him too. Paul Casey Casey jumps off the page when looking at the above angles. He’s got five top 10s to his name at Augusta National and has superb current form too. He’s not been outside the top 12 in his last six strokeplay starts and that run includes a win at the Dubai Desert Classic, a tournament won by both Danny Willett and Sergio Garcia before they won the Masters a few months later. The Englishman has fuelled his good run with impressive Scrambling and GIR numbers. Patrick Reed As a former winner, Reed ticks the course form box and he added tied 10th in November’s edition. It’s easy to see why he loves this track given his wonderful short game, and ranking 6th for Scrambling helped him win at Torrey Pines just six starts ago. He was also tied ninth at the WGC-Workday Championship in Florida (9th for GIR) to once again highlight how much he loves playing in the big events. Tips 1-2; +0.60pts 1pt e.w. Webb Simpson at 30/1 (Sky bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11) 12th 1pt e.w. Paul Casey at 28/1 (Sky bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11) 26th 1pt e.w. Patrick Reed at 28/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11) 8th
|
