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The PGA Tour visited Muirfield Village in back-to-back weeks last year as the calendar was re-shaped due to the pandemic. That suggests we have even more course form than usual to peruse as a stellar field heads back to Jack Nicklaus’ famous layout. However, there’s a snag. Muirfield Village underwent some serious renovations last year so players will face a new test. There’s a feeling that it will be harder than before although Nicklaus appeared to offer a different opinion in his pre-tournament press conference. After running through the tweaks, he said: “I would say probably a shot easier. I think the golf course is easier. I didn’t want to make the golf course tougher, I wanted to make it better.” Jordan Spieth also gave his thoughts, adding: “I’ve talked to a number of guys now over the last two days and I think visually off the tee the only real change is 15. Maybe you play a different shot or it’s a very different look. “Obviously a bit of learning to do on the new green surfaces.” However, it’s hard not to think that the essential DNA will stay the same. Nicklaus has a way of presenting courses and, in that sense, hopefully the same players will come to the fore, rendering past course form still very relevant. Defending champion Jon Rahm heads the betting. The Spaniard is a general 10/1 shot although he was double that price when winning last year. Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained: Approach It would be a surprise if this wasn’t a big pointer on a Nicklaus course and the stats don’t let us down. Rahm was 8th in this category last year while runner-up Ryan Palmer was 1st. In 2019, the first four home had SG: Approach rankings of 5th, 1st, 8th and 2nd. And so it goes on. 2/ Strokes Gained: Tee To Green While Approach is perhaps the most important element of getting the ball onto the green, the full SG: Tee To Green stat - which takes in Off The Tee and Around The Green – is also worth noting. Rahm was 1st last year for SG: TTG, as was 2017 champion Jason Dufner. The 2019 champion, Patrick Cantlay, ranked 2nd. 3/ Par 5 Performance There are four Par 5s to go at on the Muirfield Village course and they are the place to make a score. Rahm shot 9-under on the long holes (Rank: 2nd) last year while in 2019 the top three were all joint 1st for Par 5s with 12-under. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Xander Schauffele Schauffele ranks 26th in SG: Approach this season and 18th Tee To Green. He’s also made hay on the Par 5s, averaging 4.44 on those holes for a season-long ranking of tied 1st. The American has course form of 13-14-14 while, before a missed cut at Kiawah which he actively didn’t like, Schauffele was 14th at the Wells Fargo Championship and third at the US Masters. He’s had four top fives in his nine strokeplay starts in 2021 so looks a good each-way bet. Tony Finau Finau looks a great fit for Muirfield Village on paper. Why? He ranks 5th for SG: Tee To Green, 13th on Approach and 24th for Par 5 Scoring. The theory becomes reality when looking at his record on the track: two top eights, an 11th and a 13th in six starts there. With a pair of top 10s in the last two majors and tied 20th at the Charles Schwab, Finau looks ready to thrive again. Charl Schwartzel He didn’t feature at Kiawah Island but Schwartzel ranked in the top five for both SG: Approach and SG: Tee To Green in back-to-back starts in May. That helped him post tied 14th at the Wells Fargo and third in the Byron Nelson. The South African was also 14-under on the Par 5s at the Byron Nelson. He has two top eights to his name at Muirfield Village previously. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1.25pts e.w. Xander Schauffele at 22/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 11th 1.25pts e.w. Tony Finau at 25/1 (Sky bet, William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 32nd 0.5pts e.w. Charl Schwartzel at 100/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 53rd
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