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It’s week one of the FedExCup Playoffs, when 125 become 70. In truth, this is far from the greatest play-off format that any sport has invented, with a dramatic conceit that is less than enthralling, but the PGA likes it. We kick off with The Northern Trust which returns to Liberty National, last used two years ago. It’s a New Jersey track designed by Tom Kite and Bob Cupp that plays to a par of 71 at around 7,400-yards (according to tee box selections). The first time the course was used it wasn’t especially popular. Heath Slocum pulled off something of a coup in demoting Ernie Els, Tiger Woods, Padraig Harrington and Steve Striker into a share of second. Four years later the players liked the track more due to the shortening and thinning of the previously thick blue grass rough. Adam Scott prevailed and Woods was once again part of a four-way share of second. Two years ago Scott was fifth, Jon Rahm and Harold Varner III share third, Abraham Ancer was second, and Patrick Reed triumphed – somewhat fittingly, then, that Captain America was inspired by playing within sight of the Statue of Liberty. Might there be a slightly odd link with last week? Webb Simpson, who knows the Donald Ross-designed Sedgefield inside out, said of this weeks track: “The greens remind me of Donald Ross greens. I grew up in Raleigh playing on Pinehurst and playing a lot of Donald Ross courses. They are undulating. The putts break a lot and you have to use a lot of imagination around the greens.” The importance of getting to grips with the putting surfaces has been backed up by others. Jason Dufner said: “The green complexes and the approaches are very, very challenging.” Charl Schwartzel added: “The greens have got a lot of contours, so you’ve got to be accurate with your irons, you’ve got to leave the ball in the right places.” And Gary Woodland’s thoughts sound very like what folk often say of Sedgefield: “You get in the right spot, you can make putts on these fast greens.” But he also suggested: “I can really use my length to my advantage. I can hit irons off a lot of holes where guys are hitting driver, 3-wood. And when I do hit driver, the par 5s, I can get to all of them, which I think is a huge advantage.” As we shall see from the stats (below), Woodland’s latter thoughts might be worth more than that anecdotal evidence about the greens.
Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained Tee to Green In 2009 the top five players all ranked top 10 for Tee to Green, but only one of them was top 10 for Putting. Four years later it was almost the same story: the top five all ranked top 13 (four of them top 10) Tee to Green, not one top 10 for Putting. And in 2019 that happened again: five of five top 10 Tee to Green and zero of five for Putting. 2/ Strokes Gained Off the Tee It was only in 2019 that more categories became available for consideration and it might be worth noting that winner Reed ranked second Off the Tee and runner-up Abraham Ancer was first in that category. 3/ Ross Let’s keep in mind what Simpson said about the greens. Sedgefield and Detroit are both Ross designs that have been used in recent weeks. 4/ 2017 President’s Cup Don’t forget that the match was held at the course. Louis Oosthuizen top scored for the visitors (2.5 points from 5), with Dustin Johnson top man for the hosts (4.5 points). Phil Mickelson, Jordan Speith, Patrick Reed and Justin Thomas all scored 3.5 points. Mickelson was unbeaten.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Jon Rahm He ranks second behind Collin Morikawa for T2G, but their averages are fascinating: Morikawa 1.956, Rahm 1.825, Patrick Cantlay next with 1.502. That’s quite a gap for the top two. Morikawa makes his number up largely with approaches, Rahm off the tee. He was third here in 2019 and he’s played superbly on the swift, sloping Muirfield Village greens. I want him on-side. Patrick Cantlay Already discussed that he ranks third for T2G this season (and he’s 14th Off the Tee). Two years ago he improved all week before finishing T12th here. A similar thing happened last time out at TPC Southwind when he was excellent off the tee. I quite like that he also plays the fast greens at Muirfield Village exceptionally well. Cameron Champ Exceptional from the tee (7th this season), a decent T21st here two years ago (like Cantlay improving all week), went close at Deere Run, won the 3M Open, a solid weekend in his last starts at the WGC St Jude.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 3pt win Jon Rahm at 10/1 (General) 3rd 1pt e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 33/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 11th 0.5pt e.w. Cameron Champ at 125/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, BF Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 27th
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