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The PGA Championship’s bid to establish itself in a May slot was interrupted last year due to the calendar reshuffle caused by COVID-19. That meant the event returned to August and Collin Morikawa, tapping into some local knowledge, scored a brilliant win at TPC Harding Park in California. August was also the month when this week’s venue, Kiawah Island, hosted this event for the only time. That was in 2012 when Rory McIlroy romped to an eight-shot win after surviving the brutal Friday conditions when the scoring average climbed over 78. The South Carolina course played soft nine years ago but this time it looks set to present a different challenge with players noting in practice rounds that the Pete Dye track is firm and fast. Thankfully for those taking part the winds aren’t predicted to be strong but they’re still challenging given the routing of the course and the way the holes constantly turn. McIlroy’s recent win at the Wells Fargo Championship, along with his past success at the course, has promoted him to the role of favourite. And he’s shown in the past he can win back-to-back events. The course can play to a massive 7,876 yards from the tips, making it the longest venue ever used in major championship history. However, it also held that status in 2012 and yet produced a leaderboard that contained a mixture of long, medium and even short hitters so length could be a red herring. McIlroy was world number three at the time and, although some of the names were surprising, the cream tended to rise to the top as it does on most quality courses. That was shown by eight of those finishing T11 or better being ranked in the world’s top 15. Angles to consider 1/ Scrambling/SG: Around The Green These shaved greens have run-off areas, putting an emphasis on strong chipping. McIlroy was ranked 1st for Scrambling when winning in 2012 while runner-up David Lynn was 4th in that category and third-placed Carl Pettersson 7th. Several players in this week’s press conferences have noted how it’s a key skill so some magic around the greens looks a big plus. 2/ Form on coastal/links-style courses Kiawah isn’t a true links so that puts it in the same category as others which have elements of links such as being windy and exposed. Any form by the coast would be useful. Plenty of those who did well in 2012 had performed strongly at Le Golf National, another place with a links feel. 3/ Class tells It’s almost pointless looking outside the world’s top 50 for the winner of a major. The last person to win one from outside that bracket was Keegan Bradley in 2011 so the depth of talent seems too deep these days to get winners like Todd Hamilton or Ben Curtis. As noted, class acts did very here in 2012. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Patrick Reed We keep pointing out how much he loves playing in the big events and despite his good form he again looks underrated this time. Reed has won in Hawaii and scored another coastal win at Torrey Pines earlier this year. He’s been inside the top 15 in each of the last five majors and landed the each-way cash last time when T8 at Augusta. On his most recent start, Reed was T6 at the Wells Fargo and his brilliance and creativity around the greens suggests Kiawah Island will be a good fit. Tommy Fleetwood Fleetwood has already had two big finishes in majors by the coast – finishing runner-up in the US Open at Shinnecock and second to Shane Lowry at Royal Portrush. He’s also a winner at Le Golf National and cut his teeth playing on the links of Lancashire. The Englishman occupies seventh spot in the PGA Tour’s Strokes Gained: Around The Green charts and looks one of the best hopes of a European win/top five. It’s surprising, therefore, to see him at fairly generous odds. Tony Finau A lengthy track by the sea appears to play right into the hands of Finau given what he’s done in the past. While still getting grief for failing to win (his one success came at the windy Puerto Rico Open), Finau is amassing a superb body of work in the majors. He’s played in just 19 but already has nine top 10s. That’s a great strike-rate and a profitable one given that some bookies pay 10 or 11 places. His latest top 10 came at Augusta and that made it four top 10s in his last five majors. At this level, he’s the each-way gift that keeps on giving and 28th for SG: Around The Greens adds further confidence. Tips 1-2; -2.62pts 1pt e.w. Patrick Reed at 30/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11) 17th 1pt e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 45/1 (Sky bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11) mc 1pt e.w. Tony Finau at 33/1 (Sky bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11) 8th
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