|
Opened in 1986, TPC Scottsdale and the tournament it hosts is not necessarily a favourite of traditionalists, but plenty of golf fans enjoy the spectacle it annually provides. The course is a Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish design, a par-71 at 7,261-yards with a conclusion that is very distinctive and definitely has the potential for a score to be made - and very quickly too. The 15th is a vulnerable par-5, the 16th the famous stadium par-3, the 17th a par-4 that can be reached from the tee, and the final tee shot over water rewards a big bold hit – the players are invited to attack and those who make good decisions will benefit. It’s far from a birdie-fest, but it’s definitely an enjoyable week and a contrast in nature to last week at Torrey Pines when missing the fairways really hurt. Rickie Fowler, a winner here in 2019 said: “It’s fun to play. If you get it going, drive it well, you can make a lot of birdies.” Bubba Watson is yet to lift the trophy, but does have five top tens on the course and he argued: “You can play out of the rough here, which I’m in a lot. The greens are very receptive, so even out of the rough I can hit some high shots and get them to stop on the greens.” Beau Hossler highlight the importance of strategy, that there are times to attack and times not to. “I think you got to stay patient out here,” he said. “The golf course has a lot of holes that you can be aggressive on with wedges, but at the same time there’s some really meaty par-4s that you got to try and make pars on. “I think it’s kind of trying to pick your spots and then realizing that the greens are pretty good and you can make a lot of 20 footers out here if you’re rolling it well.” Angles to consider 1/ Par 4 Performance Of the last five winners, three topped the Par-4 rankings. What’s more, there have been four play-offs in the those five events and all the nine players to have led after 72 holes ranked top ten on the Par-4s. 2/ Greens in Regulation Four of those last five winners ranked top six for hitting the greens, the exception was 13th. 3/ Strokes Gained Tee to Green Long game needs to be resilient this week. Matsuyama ranked first for T2G in both his wins, Gary Woodland in 2018 was second, as was Webb Simpson when winning last year. In all, of those nine players who led the way in regulation play, eight of them ranked top six in this category. 4/ Strokes Gained Approach Simpson 12 months ago and Matsuyama in 2017 topped this category, Woodland was second, Matsuyama fourth in his first win. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Webb Simpson The 35-year-old leads the field for Par-4 Performance over the last year and ranks 11th for Greens in Regulation. He has seven top 20 finishes in his last eight course starts, including last year’s win, second in 2017, two eighths and a tenth. In three of his last four tournament starts he’s gained more than five strokes in Approaches. Fourth last time out at Waialae when actually his putter was the standout. If he rediscovers his usual long game and maintains any sort of touch on the greens he can defend the title. Russell Henley The stats shout his name even if his course form isn’t entirely convincing. He ranks second in the field for Par-4 Scoring, fourth for Greens in Regulation, third for Strokes Gained Approach this season and ninth for Tee to Green. Missed the cut at the American Express, but was T11th at Waialae and contended during the week. Russell Knox Another Russell the numbers like. Ranks fourth for Par-4 Scoring and ninth for Greens in Regulation. He’s 17th for SG Approach and 38th for Tee to Green this season. Has three top 20s in his five tournaments starts. Has a particularly good record in rounds two to four – if he can break par on Thursday he could well figure. Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 2pt e.w. Webb Simpson at 16/1 (Spreadex 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 42nd 0.5pt e.w. Russell Henley at 60/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 30th 0.5pt e.w. Russell Knox at 125/1 (Skybet, William Hill, PaddyPower, BF Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 53rd
|
