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The Players Championship is always one of the most eagerly-awaited events on the golfing calendar. And the move back to March which started in 2019 seems to have gone down well too. Rather than being pitched between Majors, it now has its own distincitve slot. The showdown at TPC Sawgrass – the most famous creation of architect Pete Dye – marks a third straight week on the Florida Swing. That means plenty of the field are nicely bedded into the rhythms of Florida golf although there are some unique properties to this event. Of course, one of those is the infamous 17th, the island green which has to be negotiated before even those holding a two or three-shot lead with a few holes to play can start to breath easier. The defending champion is… well, it probably has to be Rory McIlroy. The doubt is because Rory won the 2019 edition. Last year Hideki Matsuyama shot the 18-hole lead thanks to a brilliant 63 but golf was then shut down due to COVID 19 and the tournament was cancelled. It means the anticipation is perhaps even greater than usual having suffered a blank year and the word from the course from those interviewed is that TPC Sawgrass is in absolutely immaculate shape. Some favour the March date – Rory and Dustin Johnson would be in that camp; but others liked it better in May when the course was firmer and faster. The weather forecast this week isn’t as testing as in previous years such as 2017 when 69 balls ended up in the water at 17. But winds of 10mph will still cause problems. TPC Sawgrass is scorable if you’re on your game but the par 72 remains a tough test and retains a reputation for exposing and magnifying weaknesses. It’s for that reason why so many players have patchy records which mix top 10s and missed cuts. Angles to consider 1/ Par 4 Performance Often when four par 5s are on display, it’s these long holes that hold the key. But at Sawgrass Par 4 scoring is vital. The three champions from 2016 to 2018 – Jason Day, Si Woo Kim and Webb Simpson – all ranked 1st for Par 4 Scoring when taking victory 2/ Florida form When Rory McIlroy won the latest edition to be played in 2019 he became the latest player to arrive at Sawgrass with some strong recent Florida form under his belt. The Northern Irishman had finished tied sixth in Arnold Palmer's event at Bay Hill. Day (2016) and Tiger Woods (2013) had actually won on their previous Florida start before winning at Sawgrass while 2018 champ Simpson had Florida form of 8-5 in his previous two starts. 3/ All-Around The idea that needing to be strong in all departments is certainly borne out in the stats of past champions. Nine of the last 11 winners have ranked in the top five for All-Around when winning. There’s no faking it at Sawgrass. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Webb Simpson The 2018 winner was again gushing in his praise of Sawgrass when speaking to the press on Tuesday. “I love coming here. I’m a thinker. I like plotting my way around,” said Simpson. He comes into the event ranked T2 for Par 4 Scoring and 6th on the All-Around so his game looks in ideal shape for another big run. He gave another good display in Florida just two weeks ago when finishing in the top six of the WGC-Workday Championship so the planets look aligned. Collin Morikawa Morikawa’s elite ball-striking helped him take victory in that WGC-Workday Championship played at The Concession so his latest Florida form is winning form. He again comes out with flying colours when put through the filter of Par 4 Scoring and-All Around. The 2020 PGA Championship winner is 15th in the former and 5th in the latter. It’s technically his course debut but he played here as an amateur and also shot 68 in round one last year before play was halted. Jason Kokrak He’s been one of the quiet stars on the Florida Swing so far with T9 at the WGC-Workday Championship and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in the last fortnight. Kokrak, once a Web.com winner in the Sunshine State, is 26th on the All-Around and also in the top 25% on tour for Par 4 scoring. He looks a decent outsider and 10 each-way places helps his chances of landing the place money. Tips 1-2; -3.23pts 1.25pts e.w. Webb Simpson at 22/1 (Sky bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9) mc 1.25pts e.w. Collin Morikawa at 20/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9) 41st 0.5pts e.w. Jason Kokrak at 66/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 9th
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