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A huge hitter – Bryson DeChambeau – and a modest hitter – Nate Lashley – have won the two editions of the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit. The common theme was birdies as both made a bunch of them. DeChambeau racked up 23-under when winning last year while Lashley went even lower, firing 25-under, to land the inaugural edition in 2019. Detroit Golf Club is a Donald Ross design and measures in at 7,340 yards. It’s a stock par 72. The greens are poa annua and have taken plenty of rain in the build-up. Here’s Patrick Reed in Wednesday’s press conference on how that could affect course conditions and how low the scoring could be: “Pin placements obviously, with them being soft, you think they'll go a little tougher on pins because it will be more accessible, you're going to be able to attack the golf course. “But with it being as wet as it is, the past two years the fairways were firm, so the ball would hit and just take off. They had soft greens the first year so we were able to really attack this place because the drivers were going so far, they were just bounding when they hit fairways. “But being as soft as it is, there's going to be longer clubs to certain greens, but you're still going to be able to attack. If the weather's nice, I would still think you have to shoot at least 17, 16 under to win this golf tournament.” Speaking shortly before, DeChambeau said hitting it a long way would be extremely advantageous. “It's huge. Being able to carry certain bunkers, being able to fly to certain areas where I can have irons in where people are going to probably struggle a little bit even though they're still going to play great. “It's not like somebody that hits it short out here can't win, they can, absolutely. If they iron play well and putt really well, they can beat me. Hopefully this length gives me an advantage that you don't have to be so perfect to allow myself to be up next to the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.” Birdie-fests are often tricky to predict but let’s try and solve the puzzle. Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained: Putting DeChambeau ranked 1st in this category when winning last year while Nashley was 2nd when he scored a runaway victory. A hot putter has to be of help. 2/ Driving Distance It’s always a useful weapon on a PGA Tour track but the above quotes suggest giving it a big bash off the tee could be particularly useful this week given the wet course. Last year’s 1-2, DeChambeau and Matthew Wolff, are two of the biggest hitters in the game. 3/ Birdie Average DeChambeau made 27 birdies on the way to victory last year while runner-up Wolff poured in 30. No-one in the field made more. In 2018, Lashley racked up 28 birdies (1st) on the way to victory. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Joaquin Niemann The Chilean has the ideal profile to win this event. He ranks 9th in Driving Distance this season, is 16th in Birdie Average and 32nd for Strokes Gained: Putting. Those skills worked well for him on his only appearance in 2019 when taking fifth. Jason Kokrak Kokrak has been one of the best putters on the PGA Tour this season and ranks 2nd in that category. He’s another bomber (23rd for Driving Distance) and also makes a bunch of birdies (12th Birdie Average). He won at Colonial just two starts ago when opening 65-65-66. Cameron Tringale Although not as big a hitter as the first two picks, Tringale is still in the top 35% for Driving Distance this season and has been giving it a good thump in recent events. The Californian should enjoy putting on these poa annua greens and ranks 25th for SG: Putting this season. He’s 18th for Birdie Average and was fifth at this venue in 2019. Tips 1-2; +1.00pts 1.25pts e.w. Joaquinn Niemann at 23/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 2nd 1pt e.w. Jason Kokrak at 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 12th 0.75pts e.w. Cameron Tringale at 40/1 (William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 14th
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