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After the 42-man shootout at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the PGA Tour stays in Hawaii for the full-field Sony Open. The challenge is a very different one to last week. Waialae Country Club – the host course since 1965 – is a short, tight, tree-lined, flat par 70 with small greens. That contrasts to The Plantation where players had very different visuals – huge, wide-open fairways, sloping lies, vast greens and a par of 73. And yet, a check through the winners’ roll-call at both venues throws up plenty of the same names. Indeed, just to show how the best golfers can adapt quickly, both Ernie Els and Justin Thomas won both events back-to-back. That said, there’s a certain brand of golfer – the short and steady type – who much prefers this week’s test; especially as it correlates well with some other layouts they feel they still have a chance at on a schedule designed mostly for massive hitters. In terms of some useful numbers, 15 of the last 22 winners at the Sony had played in the previous week’s Sentry TOC so that has been a good pointer. One thing that helps adjust to a different test is that the greens at both courses are slow by PGA Tour standards. Handling the trade winds is also a common denominator. Harris English attempts to pull off the back-to-back Hawaii double while Cameron Smith defends. Don’t rule that out either as Els and Jimmy Walker have both won consecutive Sony Opens. Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained: Putting The evidence is strong that a hot putter is required to get the ‘W’. Looking at the SG: Putting ranking of the last five winners shows: 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd and 5th. Contrast that with SG: Off The Tee where two of the last five winners were outside the top 50. 2/ Strokes Gained: Approach Again, there are some fairly compelling numbers. Smith was an outlier last year but before him the champions had SG: Approach rankings of 7th, 3rd, 4th and 2nd. 3/ Competitive sharpness As noted above, 15 of the last 22 Sony champions had played in Hawaii the week before. Smith hadn’t but he’d contested the Presidents Cup, the Aussie Open and the Aussie PGA in the December so had very much kept the engine running. Last week’s winner English had played in – and won – December’s QBE Shootout so it’s definitely a trend to watch. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Brendon Todd Todd thrives at courses like Waialae and showed it in a brilliant run last year when winning the Bermuda Championship and the Mayakoba Golf Classic. He’s got a solid record here with three finishes of T21 or better in his last five visits. Todd has been busy of late, finishing T8 at Mayakoba and T5 at the QBE Shootout, both in December, and taking T13 at last week’s Sentry TOC. There, he ranked 5th for SG: Putting and 16th for SG: Approach. Abraham Ancer Similar to Todd, Ancer also played the Mayakoba (T12) and QBE Shootout and got hot on the weekend at the Sentry TOC with rounds of 4-under and 7-under to jump to T17. He’s posted T38 and T29 in his two Sony starts but this year has that extra benefit of having played the week before. He was 3rd for SG: Putting and 11th for SG: Approach at the Sentry TOC so ticks the right boxes. Kevin Kisner Another who waits for these types of weeks to come along to show his best. Kisner, a runner-up at the RSM Classic on his final start of 2020, was 7th for SG: Putting last week and shook off the rust on the weekend with his two best scores, 69 and 68. He's a course horse here with three top fives in his last five appearances. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Brendon Todd at 40/1 (Sky bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 41st 1pt e.w. Abraham Ancer at 28/1 (William Hill, Betfair, Betfred, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc 1pt e.w. Kevin Kisner at 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 32nd
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