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This tournament is the sixth oldest professional event in the world and the third oldest on the PGA Tour, but its prestige is maybe not all that it has been. For a long while it sat at the end of the schedule, in the slumber period that the elite took off ahead of the Tour Championship. In more recent times, and ever since it moved to TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course in 2010, it has moved around in May and April, sometimes finding another slumber period between the Masters and the summer, other times, as like this week, it is in the week right before the first major of the year. Phil Mickelson is among those who likes competing ahead of the trip to Augusta National, yet he’s never been too convinced of this test, saying the tight challenge from the tee and the high wind makes for the wrong kind of examination. Those blustery breezes are very definitely something to consider – winners here tend to be Texas specialists and even course specialists. Dustin Johnson, who ended 2020 and started 2021 like a train, but has since lost his putting groove and then his accuracy from the tee, was down to play this week, but, perhaps alerted to Mickelson’s doubts, he has instead made a late decision to practise at home. Jordan Spieth does play and, like Mickelson, he enjoys contending before going to Georgia. He said of the course: “Both sides of every hole has all those trees and cactus and rocks and stuff. When there’s no wind, they’re a pretty big miss, but when the wind starts to blow, they comes into play more." Charley Hoffman added: “It gives you plenty of room out there but if you start hitting it unsolid you can find the native area very quickly and, if that happens, you’re just trying to get it back in play and hopefully have a putt for par or make a bogey and get out.”
Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained Approach Winners Corey Conners in 2019 and Andrew Landry in 2018 both ranked first, whilst 2017 winner Kevin Chappell was second. It backs up Rickie Fowler saying this is a second shot course. 2/ Greens in Regulation Sort of more confirmation. Again, both Conners and Landry ranked first, as did 2015 winner Jimmy Walker. Chappell was third and 2016 winner Charley Hoffman 17th. 3/ Course form Conners and Landry had played okay on the track before, but Chappell had been second and fourth, Hoffman second and third, and Walker third.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Charley Hoffman It’s not merely that Hoffman is a past winner. His wider record on the course is just very, very good. He’s 10-for-10 at making the cut and has landed a total of eight finishes of T13th or better. He’s also in decent nick. He was in-contention at Waialae before finishing T14th, was T7th at Pebble Beach, T10th at Bay Hill, fifth at halfway at TPC Sawgrass (T17th) and T7th after 54 holes last week (T34th). Even better, his SG Approach stats in his last three measured tournaments have been: ninth, fourth and third. Si Woo KIm Last time out in strokeplay he was T9th at THE PLAYERS, ranking second for SG Approach and seventh for GIR, and earlier this season he won The American Express (first for GIR) and impressed when T25th at the Sony Open. He’s opened his course account with MC-T22nd-T45th, but added fourth in 2019 and he led that week through 18, 36 and 54 holes. Branden Grace It’s only two starts ago that the South African won, albeit an opposite field event. But he loves playing golf in the wind and has proved it on the course. His course form reads: MC-T30th-T9th-T10th, always ranking 13th or better for GIR in those three cuts made. He ranked third in that category when winning in Puerto Rico.
Tips: 1-2; +1.60pts 1pt e.w. Charley Hoffman at 33/1 (William Hill, BetFred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 2nd 1pt e.w. Si Woo Kim at 35/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 23rd 1pt e.w. Branden Grace at 60/1 (888Sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 23rd
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