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What to make of the new Tour Championship format, revealed in 2019 in which the players start with a staggered score, to reflect their season and Playoff performance? It’s not a move that has gone down especially well with punters, for we feel a little like we’ve dropped in on a six round tournament after 36 holes have already been played. There are only 30 players in the field to start with and it feels as if another 15 can immediately be ignored. The course is an old favourite – a Donald Ross design that is popular with the field. It’s a par-70, at about 7,300 to 7,400 yards (according to tee boxes) and it features Zoysia grass on the fairways, clingy Bermuda in the rough and also on the greens – very similar to TPC Southwind in fact. After winning last week Patrick Cantlay looked ahead to this week and said: “Driving the ball in the fairway there is very important with the Bermuda rough. In the past we've had it firm, so that highlights putting the ball in the fairway even a little more. Staying below the hole there is very important, too. The greens have lots of pitch, usually back to front, and they are very fast, so as many uphill putts as you can get, then you really have some chances of making some.” Gary Woodland has backed that argument up. He said: “You've got to drive the ball in the fairway here. The rough is so brutal, and the greens are so fast, it turns into a ball striker's paradise. If you drive it in play, you've got to find a way to keep the ball below the hole.” Jordan Spieth likes the Augusta angle. “You have a lot of uneven shots into these greens, you have a lot of uneven lies and it creates more feel,” he said. “That's similar to Augusta and I think that's why I play well there even if I wasn't playing well going into it. The undulations on the green and in the fairway create a lot of a feel aspect that I enjoy.” Here’s a reminder of the state of the scoring as we start: 10-under Patrick Cantlay 8-under Tony Finau 7-under Bryson DeChambeau 6-under Jon Rahm 5-under Cameron Smith 4-under Justin Thomas, Harris English, Abraham Ancer, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns 3-under Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Viktor Hovland, Louis Oosthuizen, Dustin Johnson 2-under Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Brooks Koepka 1-under Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama, Stewart Cink, Joaquin Niemann, Scottie Scheffler Even-par Daniel Berger, Erik Van Rooyen, Sergio Garcia, Billy Horschel, Patrick Reed Last year Dustin Johnson prevailed thank to his starting shots, but Xander Schauffele show the 72-hole low-score.
Angles to consider 1/ East Lake form In the last 10 years, three debutants have walked away with the title and Brandt Snedeker won with little course form. But everyone else? They all had a top three finish in a previous start at the course. 2/ Strokes Gained Off the Tee Three of the last five winners ranked first for this category and all five were top six (top seven if you count Johnson; Schauffele was fifth). 3/ Putting Average Four of the last five low-scorers for the week (i.e. counting Schauffele not Johnson) ranked top three in his category and seven of the last 10 did so. 4/ Majors Billy Horschel in 2014 didn’t play the majors especially well, but of the last 10 winners all of them finished T12th or better that year, eight of them with top 10s. Perhaps the weird thing is that only Jordan Spieth in 2015 actually won one. Maybe they still felt the need to win something to validate the year.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Dustin Johnson Three top 10s in his last five starts and ranked top 10 for Putting Average every time. Also fourth for SG Off the Tee last week, a big move back toward his best. Has a major top 10 this year but also would like something to remember the year by. “Winner” last year, but also third in 2018, 54 hole leader in 2016 and twice fifth. Brooks Koepka Strong from the tee in recent weeks (7th SG Off the Tee at TPC Southwind and last week). Finished fourth and sixth at East Lake. Gone close in the majors three times this year. Tips: 0-2; -4.00pts (Both in the low score not counting starting strokes market) 1pt e.w. Dustin Johnson at 14/1 (Paddy Power, BF Sportsbook 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) 8th 1pt e.w. Brooks Koepka at 25/1 (Boylesport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) wd
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