|
Many of us might have missed the Innisbrook Resort from last year’s PGA Tour schedule. After all, unlike many other Florida layouts, it’s a little kinder on the eye - and the test a little more nuanced too. It’s the best bet of the week, however, that none of us missed the 2020 Valspar Championship as much as Paul Casey, who missed out on the opportunity to complete a three-peat, following on from his successes in 2018 and 2019. No matter, the Englishman has been in a rich vein of form in 2021 and now finally gets his chance. True, the form has dipped a little of late, but he’ll surely be chipper about a return to such a happy hunting ground. The Copperhead Course is tree-lined and undulating, a tight enough test to have flummoxed many of the world’s elite. You’d argue that since its inception at the start of the 21st century the tournament has had only two winners from the world’s finest (Vijay Singh and Jordan Spieth). Those who get to the top by first utilising a fearsome smash from the tee box have tended to be neutered by the challenge – it’s also true, of course, that the event is not quite top drawer and so is a good week for plenty to recuperate. Which is not to say that they don’t turn up, just not in big numbers. That is the case again this week. The course is 7,340-yard and the card has a few quirks: it’s a par-71 with four par-5s, but also five par-3s. With the event taking place a little later than normal the Bermuda grass on the greens has grown out rather more than normal. The tight tee-to-green test is also emphasised by the small size of the greens, which are themselves quite slopey – one reason Jordan Spieth likes them. “There’s a premium on ball-striking,” said Casey and others agree with him. Henrik Stenson has said: “You position yourself from the tee a lot” and added that driver is often out of the hands (not that he’s a fan of it anyway). Bubba Watson’s caddie Ted Scott warned him: “To play good round here you’re going to have to play boring golf.”
Angles to consider 1/ Putting Average The SG Putting stats of the winners here have been nothing much, but the traditional Putting Average has highlighted the need to putt well when having a look at breaking par. Of the last six winners, five ranked seventh or better and John Senden, the exception, was 12th which was superb for that flaky flat stick merchant. 2/ SG Tee to Green Highlighting the long game test and the importance of saving par around the small greens is that that last five winners ranked top six for SG T2G. 3/ Par 5 Performance It’s a little like a case of hanging onto par around the 14 other holes (Scott’s “boring golf”) and then making the birdies at the long holes. Five of the last six winners ranked top three on them (the sixth was 19th). 4/ Other undulating courses Four golfers have completed the Deere Run-Copperhead double, a fifth (Bryson DeChambeau) has won at Deere Run and at Copperhead as an amateur. Ryan Moore is among many who’ve come close to the double. Both courses feature elevation changes and undulations. So, too, of course, does Augusta National. Singh, Spieth and Charl Schwartzel have completed that double, and plenty of Copperhead winners (KJ Choi, Retief Goosen, Jim Furyk, Casey) have decent Masters records.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Patrick Reed He leads the field for Putting Average and is fifth for Par 5s over the last year (see Course Compatibility) which is not a bad combo. He’s also, of course, a past winner at Augusta National and eighth there last time out. His course forms show playoff defeat in 2015, another second in 2018, plus tied seventh in 2016. Russell Henley Sorely tempted by Corey Conners, but ultimately it had to be the Canadian or Reed and the American got the nod at the prices. Instead second selection is Henley. His stats have been fine for a long time now. He ranks 11th for SG T2G this season, he’s solid for PA and on the Par-5s, he was third at the Honda Classic, tied ninth last time out at The Heritage and was tied ninth at Innisbrook in 2017. Also been second at Deere Run and, quietly, never outside the top 25 in his last three visits to Augusta. Kevin Na He’s got two top 15 finishes at Deere Run, has landed T12th and T13th at Augusta in the last six month, and a second, T10th and T22nd in his last four course visits. He also topped the Putting Average here when eighth in 2009. A winner at Waialae this year, when second for SG T2G.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Patrick Reed at 20/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 30/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, BF Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Kevin Na at 55/1 (Skybet, BetFred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 29th
|
