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In its short history the 3M Open had thrown up a few surprises. The first edition in 2019 was won by new professional Matthew Wolff, who pulled away from Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa in the final round. We knew about DeChambeau at the time, the other two had just left college. Wolff was in his fourth pro start and had not top 40 to his name – but a fine reputation. The following year Michael Thompson prevailed over Adam Long in second and an absurd nine players in a tie for third. Thompson had been tied eighth at Harbour Town in April but it was his only top 30 in 14 starts ahead of the win. Last year Cameron Champ had dropped a clue in his previous start at the John Deere Classic, being third after 54 holes before slipping outside the top 10 on Sunday. That had been his first top 20 in 15 starts. A peculiar set of winners, then, for this TPC set-up that was designed by Arnold Palmer and re-jigged by Tom Lehman. It is a par 71 at 7,431 yards with bent grass greens. The key defence is water and there is lots of it. The fairways are wide but Palmer has a design ethic that attacking drivers are rewarded. Adam Long says of the test: “There's a lot of intimidating shots out there. There's room to miss and stuff, but there's a lot of water out there. It's kind of in your face, you can't avoid it. You just have to kind of step up and hit a golf shot a lot of times out there. So it provides a lot of birdies, but it's also pretty visually intimidating.” Patrick Rodgers added: “I think this golf course really suits length off the tee and good putting.” Phil Mickelson explained that the greens are so good that a lot of putts are made – and indeed scoring has been low although wind slowed that down last year.
Angles to consider 1/ Stats First thing to note: Champ and Wolff are modern big-hitters, Thompson is a wily veteran(ish). Second thing: Champ and Thompson topped Strokes Gained Putting (Wolff was 39th) while Wolff topped SG Tee to Green (Champ was 26th, Thompson 17th). Perhaps note that Wolff did rank sixth for Putting Average so it’s not like he putted badly. He played exceptionally from tee to green, holed plenty of birdie putts, but did nothing out of the ordinary with the flat stick. 2/ Par 4s Thompson and Wolff ranked first, Champ ranked second. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Chris Gotterup The new pro (sounds familiar, hopefully he spins off the Wolff and Morikawa vibe) was an impressive tied fourth at the John Deere Classic and was suddenly 20/1 for the Barbasol Championship. That was too short but this week he’s bounced out to a nice price. Played the par 4s very well at TPC Deere Run when he was also superb Tee to Green (second in the field). JT Poston Sensational when second in the Travelers and then a winner at the John Deere Classic, Poston was far from rubbish when two 73s saw him miss the cut in St Andrews (he struggled to save par from off the green but putted well when he got birdie looks). He also played quite nicely on his Twin Cities debut last year with 66s in rounds two and four. He was in the top 10 at halfway and finished T28th (a poor Saturday 76 ruined his hopes). Adam Svensson Played the par-4s very well at Deere Run, when T24th and he was also second for SG Putting. Last week he was tied sixth (a fourth top 25 on the bounce) and seventh for SG Tee to Green. On his only previous tournament start, in 2019, he was T15th having been outside the top 70 after an opening 70. A 64 got him in the top 20 and 69-67 at the weekend kept him there.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Chris Gotterup at 45/1 (Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 31st 1pt e.w. JT Poston at 33/1 (Skybet, PaddyPower, William Hill, Coral, BF Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 11th 1pt e.w. Adam Svensson at 40/1 (Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc
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