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A year ago this week the golfing world was coming to terms with the fact that Tiger Woods had been involved in the car accident from which he is still yet to recover sufficiently from to resume tour golf. We got a look at him on the course back in December, when playing alongside son Charlie, and he was happily enjoying himself, yet also quite clearly in pain and some way from being ready to compete again. Woods has been a superstar in this tournament, of course, winning it no less than eight times down the years. Even so, he cannot quite overhaul the great Arnold Palmer’s shadow over the week – this is a tournament that celebrates everything Arnie did for the game, from his effect on fans, the televising of the sport, its sponsorship, and the riches the players now enjoy (and which some deem is insufficient). Wonder what Palmer and his agent Mark McCormack might have made of the Saudi Golf League?! That’s a question we will never know the answer to. Instead, we’ll try and answer the simpler one (in theory) of who will win this week. Palmer liked this to be a tough test. The greens are hard to hold and fast in speed, the rough is tangly, the wind is often up. As we noted last year, there is an entertaining difference in opinion about the examination. Matthew Fitzpatrick argues: “It’s quite penal off the tee and missing the greens. If you really hit it well tee to green you can shoot some good scores. It’s a challenge." Rickie Fowler counters that: “It’s not too demanding off the tee as far as you’re not always having to hit drivers and it’s not too narrow.” He did, however, add: “You do have to get the ball in the fairway.” Rory McIlroy has argued that it is important to do what Tiger did and build a score on the par-5s. But, as we pointed out 12 months ago and discuss below, the stats actually argue that it is the short holes which sort the wheat from the chaff. That said, last year did witness a display of big-hitting that got the galleries cheering – when Bryson DeChambeau thrashed the ball across the water at ever-more dizzying angles. He even celebrated himself with a flexing of his muscles.
Angles to consider 1/ Par 3s The last eight winners here have excelled on the par-3s. DeChambeau, Tyrrell Hatton and Matt Every (on defence) ranked first, Francesco Molinari and Rory McIlroy third, Marc Leishman and Jason Day fourth, Every sixth in his first win. 2/ Course form Woods is not the only multiple winner here. Ernie Els, Tom Kite and Loren Roberts have two apiece. Nine of the last 10 winners already had a top five finish on the course in their personal log book. 3/ Internationals Prior to DeChambeau’s win last year five international raiders had won in a row. And, since 2005, only three Americans have won here: DeChambeau, Every and Woods.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Matt Fitzpatrick The Englishman missed the cut twice in his first four course starts, but he has also played exceptionally well in four of his last five. He was top three through 54 holes before finishing T13th in 2017, the 54-hole leader ahead of landing second in 2019, T9th in 2020 and T10th last year. He’s finished top 10 in his last three starts and in two of them he was excellent on the par 3s. Marc Leishman The Aussie is another with a very fine course record. He was third in 2011, seventh in 2017, second in 2020 and the winner in 2017. He also often plays the short holes well and is tied first in par 3 scoring in the 2021/22 season. In fact, he is yet to play those holes over-par this campaign! Or miss a cut. Will Zalatoris Another playing well on the short holes – he ranks tied fourth for them this season. It’s also very notable that he plays major championship courses very well so the test should suit him and, indeed, he was T10th on debut last year. He’s also played well this calendar year: sixth first time out at The American Express, a play-off loser at the Farmers Insurance Open and T26th at the Genesis Invitational. Not an international, but slight overkill to entirely avoid Americans.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Matt Fitzpatrick at 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 9th 1pt e.w. Marc Leishman at 30/1 (BetFred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 68th 1pt e.w. Will Zalatoris at 30/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 38th
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