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We went into this event pretty much blind last year. The annual celebration of the life of the great Byron Nelson had moved from its long-term home of Las Colinas, decided one year at Trinity Forest was enough, and had decamped to TPC Craig Ranch. It has hosted the Korn Ferry Tour in 2008 and 2012 so we weren’t entirely clueless, but there was still a lot of guessing going on. A Tom Weiskopf creation, he created Loch Lomond (not much help on the PGA Tour these days) and also redesigned TPC Scottsdale and Torrey Pines North. It is a par-72 and Weiskopf said of it:”"We call this a big-boy golf course. Back in 2000 when we were negotiating with the Tour, 7,450 yards was a long golf course. And that’s what this is.” Local man Ryan Palmer backed that up, saying: “It's going to be a big putting contest that week. You've got wide fairways. It's going to be hard to tighten the fairways up. Bentgrass greens. I think you've got to hit it a long ways. It's going to be a bomber's golf course, I think.” In our preview we noted that that wasn’t a lost of evidence in the two second tier events of it being vulnerable to big hitting: “In 2012 only two of the top seven ranked top 20 for distance and in 2008 only three of the top eight. “In contrast, the top four in 2008 and top eight in 2012 ranked top 20 for hitting Greens in Regulation. “Putting did matter, however. The top eight in 2012 and nine of the top 10 in 2008 ranked top 20 for Putting Average.” How did that compare to the first time the bog boys played it? Well, only three of the top 12 finished ranked top 10 for Driving Distance and nor did it seem deceptive – the top finishers were not keeping their powder dry on the measured holes. Each of the top six ranked top 20 for Greens in Regulation; more persuasively five of the six ranked top seven for Strokes Gained Approach. Winner KH Lee ranked second for Putting Average and Scott Stallings, one of four tied third, ranked second. The grass is an unusual mix this week: clingy Zoysia on the fairways, Bermuda in the rough, bent on the greens.
Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained Approach Don’t miss the hint discussed above: five of the top six finishers ranked top seven last year. 2/ TPC Scottsdale Three reasons: 1. The Weiskopf connection. 2. The odd grass mix (it’s not the same at Scottsdale but there is Bermuda for approaches and poa/triv on the greens). 3. Do 1 and 2 explain that Lee was tied second at Scottsdale ahead of his win here and Sam Burns (who very nearly won here) had been top four through 36 holes in that WM Phoenix Open? Lee played well there again this year (briefly).
3/ Short holes Three of the four par-3s are over 215 yards and all three winners ended the week under-par on them, with the placed finishers thriving on them too. 4/ Texas Good Texas performers repeat – it’s always worth considering.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Hideki Matsuyama Owns a superb record at Scottsdale (two wins, seven top 20s in all) and was tied eighth this year. Ranks 10th on the Par 3s this year and 12th for SG Approach. Was a fine T14th when defending his Masters title and returns to action now. Has finished second in the Houston Open, was T16th in this event in 2018 after an appalling start (T120th after 18 holes) and a solid enough T39th last year. Nice price too. Talor Gooch Shares top spot in the Par-3 scoring this season, is 19th for SG Approach, has twice been fourth in the Houston Open, was T39th alongside Matsuyama last year, and was third after 54 holes in Scottsdale this year. Tom Hoge Joint top in the Par-3s with Gooch, ninth for SG Approach, was T14th at Scottsdale this year, also a new winner this year. Good numbers and detail at the price.
Tips: 1-2; +2.75pts 1.25pt e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 30/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 3rd 1pt e.w. Talor Gooch at 40/1 (Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 0.75pt e.w. Tom Hoge at 100/1 (Skybet, W Hill, P Power, BF Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 17th
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