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The RBC Canadian Open is back after a gap of three years (but just two missed editions, in 2020 and 2021). It might be back but two of the sponsor’s stars are not after Dustin Johnson and Graeme McDowell put LIV Golf riches ahead of their corporate backer. Bankers follow money just as ruthlessly as golfers, of course, so it would be a little amusing if RBC were troubled by the move, but the wider sport might be about to deal with many such decisions. Following the money makes sense to short-termists, the question is what impact it has on the sport in the long-term. Not a question for punters this week. Instead a challenge we’ve not been set since 2010, when St George’s Golf & Country Club in Toronto last hosted the event. What a different word it was then, just 12 years ago, when Carl Pettersson plodded to a win over a wilting Dean Wilson with Luke Donald in third. It’s a par-70 at 7,014-yards with bent grass on the greens. Designed by Stanley Thompson in the 1920s it is tree-lined and traditional in nature. Back in 2010 the leaders were accurate enough from the tee, but pretty wasteful from there – not one of the top three ranking better than 39th for hitting Greens in Regulation. They, and the nine players who shared fourth, were, however, largely quite smart in their short game (the details are below). It might be worth noting, nonetheless, that the greens and the bunkers have been renovated in the meantime so all this might be old hat and need an asterisk placed alongside it. But what Mike Weir said might explain a) the difficulty of hitting the greens, and b) the importance of chipping onto, and putting well on, them: “I think there’s probably a couple greens out there that are semi-flat, and there’s probably 15 of them that are very severe. So I guess overall consistency of very difficult greens. I can’t think of any outside of really Augusta that are this difficult.” Another potential angle is that the course is quite undulating and has five par-3s. That’s reminiscent of Innisbrook, home of the Valspar Championship. Is it coincidence that Pettersson and Donald were winners there? Or that both has actually contended at Innisbrook in 2010?!
Angles to consider 1/ Short game Pettersson ranked 21st for Scrambling and fourth for both traditional putting stats, Wilson was second, sixth and first, Donald first, 25th and 16th. Of those nine in fourth five ranked top five for a short game category and eight ranked top 15. 2/ Par-3s There are five rather than the more normal four at St. George’s. 3/ Innisbrook Let’s conclude that it’s a neat enough link. Greg Chalmers and Charlie Wi were in that share of fourth and both finished top 20 that year in the Valspar.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Sam Burns He’s made four starts at Innisbrook, never been out of the top 30, was T12th on debut, won in 2021 and successfully defended the title this year. He ranks 23rd this season on the par-3s. And his form is superb with two wins in his last six starts, a run that also includes second in the pairs event in New Orleans. Ranks 19th for SG Putting and eighth for Putting Average in 2022. Adam Hadwin The Canadian is a winner at Innisbrook (in 2017) and was seventh this year (when the first round leader and second at halfway). He’s also landed three top seven finishes in 10 tournament starts (and was T37th on the course back in 2010 on event debut). He ranks 13th on the short holes, 18th for SG Around the Greens and 35th for Scrambling. Patrick Reed Not a winner at Innisbrook but was second in 2018, a playoff loser in 2015 and seventh in 2016. Also a winner at Augusta National, of course (see the Weir comments above). Landed a first top 10 of 2022 two starts ago at Colonial and his T53rd last week at Muirfield Village has pushed his price out a little. His poor play this year equals poor stats but his best golf witnesses stellar short game skills. Only played the event once when T13th in 2013.
Tips: 0-2; -4.00pts 2pts win Sam Burns at 14/1 (General) 4th 1pt e.w. Adam Hadwin at 40/1 (Skybet, Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 35th 1pt e.w. Patrick Reed at 50/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) dns
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