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After the strict qualifying rules were relaxed a little last year due to Covid, the Sentry Tournament of Champions once again acts as a showcase for the winners of 2021. While the new season has been up and running since mid-September, this still feels like the start of the PGA Tour calendar and one of the tricky aspects for punters is trying to find out who did what over the Festive break. Did some players not touch a club in a bid to refresh? Or did others put in the work and get to Maui early? It’s quite a trek to the Plantation Course in Hawaii but most are more than happy to make it: their place in the field symbolic of what they achieved the previous season. The course is known for its vast, sloping fairways and huge greens. Wind is often a factor and one added quirk is that the Plantation is a Par 73. Not due to an extra Par 5 but because of just three Par 3s. Winning scores in this no-cut event are dictated by how hard it blows and sometimes in what direction. Take the last three years: -23 for Xander Schauffele in 2019, -14 for Justin Thomas in 2020 and -25 for Harris English last time. The latest two editions have both gone to play-offs. This used to be a carve-up for the Aussie players, who managed five wins in seven years from 2004 to 2010 but the last 11 winners have all been American. There doesn’t seem an obvious explanation for that and Chile’s Joaquin Niemann lost in a play-off last year. The weather forecast seems fairly tame this week so something around last year’s winning score of -25 would seem a reasonable guess. Angles to consider 1/ Winning form in the second half of 2021 It was a noted factor ahead of last year’s edition and Harris English validated it once more. His victory means five of the last six winners had managed a win in the last half of the preceding year. 2/ Putting Average English gave added credence to another trend last year. The American ranked 1st for Putting Average. The previous PA rankings of the winners: 2-2-1-1-1. Yep, putting well is essential. 3/ Masters form The courses – Augusta National and The Plantation – are clearly very different but they seem to correlate very well when looking at winners. Maybe it’s the huge, sweeping undulations. Five of the last nine Sentry winners are also Masters champions. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Hideki Matsuyama The timing and setting of Matsuyama’s two wins in 2021 make him jump out here. His first, most memorably, was at Augusta National while his second, the Zozo in Japan, came as recently as late October. The Masters connection looks strong as he’s already excelled on this course with a second, a third and a fourth in his four visits. His putter can misbehave but it’s comforting that he putts these particular greens well (4th, 6th and 9th for PA in those previous good finishes). Abraham Ancer Ancer made the big breakthrough with a victory in August’s WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational so has a win in the second half of last season. He’s finished T13 (halfway leader) and T26 in his two starts at the Masters and currently ranks 4th for Putting Average in the 2021/2022 charts. Seventh in November’s PGA Tour event at Mayakoba, he can build on a decent first look at this course in 2021 when he shot 69-66 (11-under) on the weekend. Marc Leishman The Aussie doesn’t have a recent win but he started the new campaign with a pair of top fours and signed off with another top 20. The six-time PGA Tour winner has a fourth, a fifth and a ninth at Augusta and a fourth and a seventh from previous starts here. The final piece of the jigsaw is that he’s 6th for Putting Average this season. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1.2pts e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 22/1 (Skybet, William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 13th 0.9pts e.w. Abraham Ancer at 30/1 (Skybet, Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 35th 0.9pts e.w. Marc Leishman at 35/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 10th
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