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As mentioned in last year’s preview the re-location of the PGA Championship to May has had something of an unintended consequence, in the form of an echo of the Masters/Heritage relationship. In that fortnight there is a first week of high intensity at a major championship and a second that is something of an after party. So it is now with the PGA Championship and Charles Schwab Challenge: first the big battle, then the slightly more relaxed week on a course, at a club and in a location the circuit enjoys. It is even the case that Harbour Town (home of the Heritage) and Colonial Country Club (this week’s venue) are similar: short, tree-lined, breezy, small greens, dog legs. Kevin Kisner backed that notion up, saying, when asked which courses fitted his game: “Here (Colonial) and Hilton Head (Harbour Town) ... very advantageous to be in the fairway, it’s more of position golf courses.” There’s another echo at play too: last week’s Southern Hill Country Club was designed by Perry Maxwell and so is Colonial Country Club, this week’s test. A difference is that this week the course plays to around 7,200 yards, depending on tees, and last week was 450 yards longer. Both were par-70s, highlighting the difference. But Jordan Spieth, a Colonial expert, did say of last week’s layout: “It reminds me a lot of Colonial, just a little bit on steroids, a little more undulation and driver in your hands more.” An intriguing final note: Jon Rahm compared this layout to Valderrama and Europeans who have played well there have thrived at Colonial. Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose are winners at both, Bernhard Langer nearly was (he lost a play-off in Forth Worth), Freddie Jacobson and Ian Poulter have added Colonial top five finishes to Valderrama wins.
Angles to consider 1/ Par 4 performance The last five winners ranked top three on the par-4s. They are known for being narrow and having lots of dog legs. 2/ Greens in Regulation Old fashioned stats work here. The last five winners have ranked top four for GIR. Precision from the tee, ability to find the putting surface and because the greens are small if they were found opportunities are there t break par. 3/ Strokes Gained Tee to Green and Approach Again these make sense, the former most obviously: the last six winners (and 2021 play-ff loser Collin Morikawa) ranked top seven. The last four winners also ranked top eight for Approach. 4/ Other courses Harbour Town, Valderrama and Southern Hills – don’t overlook those course similarities.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Jordan Spieth His course form is superb: nine starts with no missed cut, a win and three seconds. He won at Harbour Town and then was second at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He was a little flat last week in the PGA but we can forgive one bad week. He might even be inspired after his good friend Justin Thomas won. More importantly, his Tee to Green (8th), Approach (13th) and GIR (24th) stats are good this season. Harold Varner III His course record is better than at first glance (middle rounds of 64-67 last year, 36-hole leader in 2020) and his Harbour Town record is very fine (second last year, the 54-hole leader this year). In the top 50 this season for Tee to Green, Approach and Par-4s. Stewart Cink He is on record as saying he likes playing off a good major performance and won at Harbour Town that way last season. He was T7th heading into the final round last week and now returns to Colonial for the first time in a while. He was second there in 2000, when the 54-hole leaded, and T10th in his penultimate start in 2017, when three back with 18 holes to play. Good approach stats in his recent top 10s at Innisbrook and Potomac.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 2pt win Jordan Spieth at 14/1 (General) 7th 1pt e.w. Harold Varner III at 50/1 (Paddy Power, BF Sportsbook, W Hill, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 27th 1pt e.w. Stewart Cink at 100/1 (Paddy Power, BF Sportsbook, W Hill, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc
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