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After birdie-fests for the last three weeks, it’s time the PGA Tour stars were set a sterner examination paper. They’ll certainly get that at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines where winning scores can be single digits under par. The first message is get those bets on early as the tournament runs from Wednesday to Saturday this year to avoid a clash with the NFL play-offs. As with last week, there is more than one course in use. The players have one lap of the easier (although toughened up) North Course – a stock par 72 that measures in at 7,258 yards. But the star of the show is the famous Torrey Pines South. It staged last year’s US Open won by Jon Rahm with 6-under after two closing birdies and can stretch beyond 7,760 yards. The South, used for both weekend rounds, averaged nearly four shots higher than the North on the first two days last year. It has bent/Poa greens. As with all oceanside tracks, wind can dictate scores but it looks pretty calm on this spectacular section of the California coastline so perhaps this could be a 15-under week for the winner. Tiger Woods and Jon Rahm have won both this event and the US Open at Torrey Pines. But US Open form from 2021 could be a red herring as it was played in much firmer and faster conditions. Far better to look at past records in this event. Angles to consider 1/ Event form Last year’s winner, Patrick Reed, had finished sixth 12 months before while 2020 champion Marc Leishman was previously a two-time runner-up. They are just two of numerous examples that strong previous form at the Farmers is a great pointer. 2/ Strokes Gained: Approach Reed broke the mould a little last year but three of the last five winners ranked in the top five for this category – Leishman in 2020, Justin Rose in 2019 and Rahm in 2017. The greens are small and finding them with strong iron play is important. 2/ All-Around There’s a repeated phrase that “there’s no faking it at Torrey Pines South”. Everything needs to be done well. The two players who finished 1st and 2nd for All-Around last year both finished runner-up while the first three home in 2019 ranked 1st, 2nd and 3rd for AA. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Tony Finau We’ve put up Finau in this preview for each of the last two years and he’s ensured a profit both times. Finau is a superb performer by the coast and has four top six finishes in this event and nothing worse than tied 25th. He’s a similar price to past years but this time comes in with a recent win under his belt after landing the 2021 Northern Trust. That could help him go from nearly man here to winner. Justin Rose Rose will be looking to join the list of multiple winners at Torrey Pines having won the 2019 Farmers. Either side of that victory he was 4th in 2017 and 8th in 2019. Always a strong performer in California, the Englishman is 32nd on the All-Around this season and removed some rust with tied 33rd in last week’s American Express. He seems at his best on elite courses these days so the price looks good. Talor Gooch Gooch has made all four cuts at Torrey Pines and one of those was a top three finish so he’ll have plenty of confidence. A winner at the back end of 2021, he ranks 5th on the All-Around this season and 9th for SG: Approach so he ticks every box in terms of the relevant categories we’ve outlined. Tips 1-2; +0.39pts 1.25pts e.w. Tony Finau at 28/1 (Hills, Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc 0.75pts e.w. Justin Rose at 66/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 6th 1pt e.w. Talor Gooch at 50/1 (General 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 20th
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