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It’s the last week of the West Coast Swing – and the last week of Poa Annua in California too. Unlike Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines, this week’s host course – Riviera Country Club – is not quite on the coast. Instead it sits in a ravine that strikes inland from the coast. It can be breezy, but not quite like those other two venues. It did host the 1983 and 1995 PGA Championship so this does have that major-quality in common with them both. The kikuyu grass is not so much of a problem from the fairway, but it can be very tangly from the rough – it’s one reason Tiger Woods said of the test: “There’s no faking it around this golf course. It puts such a premium on putting the golf ball in play. You’ve got to hit the ball high into these greens and really control your spin because getting up and down here, on kikuyu grass is not easy to do.” Then there are the greens which are quite distinct, as Adam Scott noted: “I think it’s no secret the least putts are made here on Tour all year. The greens are quite severe … (and the) poa seems like if it’s just not the right consistency of water versus firmness and everything, they get very bumpy and this is where we start struggling.” Bubba Watson and Jordan Spieth are both Augusta National specialists with different feeling about Riviera. The former says: “The imagination is huge around here. It's so much fun. This golf course, they don't change it, they haven't changed it since I've been around, so it's a blast every year we come here and I get to create shots. Same thing at Augusta, you can be creative and use your imagination.” You’d think Spieth, too, would love it. He says he does, but is also honest enough to add: “I'm not quite patient enough to play this golf course.”
Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained Off the Tee form Max Homa broke something of a trend last year. Ahead of his success five of five winners had ranked 11th or better for Strokes Gained Off the Tee in one of their two starts ahead of this one. Makes sense given the need to be driving the ball well. 2/ Greens in Regulation Of the last six winners Adam Scott and Dustin Johnson ranked first for Greens in Regulation, JB Holmes second, Homa fifth, and Watson seventh and eighth. That six of six ranking top eight in the week of their win. 3/ Course and Californian form Five of the last six winners had already finished top three on the course and six of six had already finished top five. Those winners also tend to be very good performers on Poa Annua in California in general. Of the last six winners, the four who weren’t Bubba Watson all had a top 10 in their previous tree starts on that grass in the state.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Hideki Matsuyama He ranks 20th this season for hitting Greens in Regulation, and hit 75% of them last week in Scottsdale when tied eighth. He’s a two-time winner in his last five appearances and he has four results of T11th or better in seven course starts, with a best of tied fourth in 2015. His SG Off the Tee stats were good in the win at the Sony Open and also at Torrey Pines. He was tied sixth at Silverado (poa, California) in September. Bubba Watson In his three wins he has tended to confound trends so not overly concerned by the bad news. Rather, am content that a fellow who has won an event three times and is in fine form has to be considered. He was second in Saudi and then T14th last week in Arizona. He was very good tee to green last week. The clincher is getting north of 33/1 for him. Si-Woo Kim An intriguing prospect. Course form? He was third in 2019. Californian form? T11th at Torrey Pines, T11th at Silverado and he made the cut at Torrey Pines in the US Open last summer. SG Off the Tee? Tied sixth last week in Phoenix. GIR? He hit over 75% last week.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1.25pt e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 25/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 39th 1pt e.w. Bubba Watson at 40/1 (BetFred, BF Sportsbook, Paddy Power, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) mc 0.75pt e.w. Si-Woo Kim at 70/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 73rd
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