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The great post-Augusta contrast awaits. Of course, the week after any major tends to be somewhat slower by necessity but two factors increase that element this week. The first is that we wait so long for the Masters so the hype is enormous – and also the course is known to us inside out. That leads into the second factor: Harbour Town Golf Links is very different to Augusta National. The fairways are hemmed in by trees, the greens are tiny, they are Bermuda not bent, they are slow (because of the coastal winds), and the course is short not long. The layout was designed by Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus, being the latter’s first venture into architecture. In truth, it is more of a Dye test which is one reason some like it and others have their patience examined beyond repair. But it does test approach play which is always a Nicklaus principle. It plays to around 7,191 yards with a par of 71. The long game is somewhat restricted and so plays into the hands of neat and tidy types. Big-hitters who like to play driver tend to give the week a miss or go a bit crazy. The greens are a key factor, being so small also grainy. “It’s a test of ball-shaping, positioning and patience,” argued 2013 winner Graeme McDowell. “Small greens, tight fairways and wind,” said 2011 champion Brandt Snedeker. Two-time winner Jim Furyk said: “It calls for a lot of different shots. It’s different than a lot of golf courses we play. I won’t lie to you, my strengths are very valuable here, getting the high, bombing draw and driver isn’t really in my wheelhouse and there’s not a huge need for that here.” Luke Donald (seven top three finishes) said: “The guys that can scramble well and have good course management thrive. It’s not a course you need to be a long hitter. Certain holes it helps, obviously, but the long hitters, it’s taking driver out of their hands a lot. So I feel like the playing field’s leveled out.” Last year witnessed a superb display by veteran Stewart Cink, who landed a third win on the course.
Angles to consider 1/ Par-4 Performance Cink might have been brilliant but he was the first winner in seven not to rank top two for the Par-4s. Before him, CT Pan, Wes Bryan and Branden Grace all ranked first whilst Jim Furyk, Satoshi Kodaira and Webb Simpson were second. Cink was fifth. 2/ Strokes Gained Tee to Green Each of the last seven winners ranked 11th or better for SG Tee to Green. It’s a common enough trend but perhaps an added reason this week is that, with those greens being so small, finding them matters and, also, once found the putts are never going to be long. 3/ Similar tracks Course form is handy. Davis Love III won five times, Jim Furyk landed two wins and two seconds, Boo Weekley was a back-to-back champion, Webb Simpson won after losing in extra holes, and Donald had those seven great efforts. But players who perform well here also do so at similar tests: Waialae, Sea Island, El Camaleon especially. 4/ Sedgefield Four players have won at Harbour Town and also Sedgefield – an absolute host of players have landed top five and top ten finishes at both courses. 5/ Masters Golfers who contended at the Masters don’t have a good record winning here. They can contend, but the wins are rare.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Daniel Berger The bad news: his form’s not been great since he blew a five-shot 54-hole lead at the Honda Classic and he shot 80 on Sunday. The good news: not long ago you would never have got him at 33/1. He was actually T10th after 18 holes last week and T13th at Sawgrass before that. He’s won twice at Southwind, been second in Puerto Rico, won at Colonial (similarly tight) and on the course? 4-for-4 including third at halfway in 2019, third in 2020 and T13th last year. Top 10 for SG T2G and top 25 on the par-4s. Russell Henley Ranks seventh for SG T2G and 15th on the par-4s this season, has two course top 10s (including his last start), hasn’t missed a cut since the Open last year, wasn’t in the mix last week and get this: he’s had three 54-hole leads in the last year. The second was at Sedgefield and the third at Waialae. Maverick McNealy Ranks top 50 for the two important stats this season, he’s missed one cut since last May, he’s got top 20s at El Cameleon and PGA National, and he has a neat course record. He carded two 66s on debut (the first to guarantee a weekend after an awful starts) and was fourth last year.
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Daniel Berger at 33/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 21st 1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 33/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) mc 1pt e.w. Maverick McNealy at 50/1 (W Hill, P Power, BF Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) 26th
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