Preview & Tips

We’ve seen some crazy scores on the PGA Tour this year but expect that to change in this week’s Honda Classic at PGA National.

Unlike last year, this is the opening event of the Florida Swing and it could be a real wake-up call for those who contested some of the birdie-fests on the west coast.

In the last 15 years, just four players have finished in double digits under par. They were the winners in 2010 (Camilo Villegas), 2012 (Rory McIlroy), 2017 (Rickie Fowler) and 2021 (Matt Jones).

That’s a Colombian, a Northern Irishman, an American and an Australian which highlights another feature of the tournament: overseas players often come to the fore.

McIlroy is one of several Open winners to have lifted the trophy and that includes some of the more surprise ones such as Todd Hamilton and Justin Leonard.

The common factor is windy conditions and it can really blow on this Jack Nicklaus design.

The par 70 Champion Course at PGA National is perhaps best known for the Bear Trap – the tough stretch of holes late in the round. It comprises the par-3 15^th, the par-4 16^th and the par-3 17^th.

McIlroy says of the course: “It’s a ball-striker’s golf course. You have to hit fairways. You have to hit greens and you have to just take your chances when they come along.”

After all the world’s top 10 played at Riviera last week, the highest-ranked player here is Louis Oosthuizen at 13.

Something has to give on the schedule and many of the big guns are saving themselves for the next two Florida events: the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players Championship.

Angles to consider

1/ Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green

Last year’s winner Matt Jones ranked 1^st in this category, picking up a massive 14.301 shots on the field. That followed on from 2020 champion Sungjae Im leading the SG: Tee-To-Green stats too with 12.288. And so it goes on. Putting isn’t everything here but getting to the greens is.

2/ Par 4 Performance

This is so often a key factor on a par 70 where there are two extra par 4s. Jones ranked 1^st for Par 4s (-5) last year.

3/ Scrambling

Greens will be missed on a regular basis and a sharp and creative short game is vital. Looking at the top 10 finishers from the last half-dozen years reveals a raft of strong scrambling stats.

4/ Florida form

The switch of coasts is important because the greens are Bermuda in Florida after mostly Poa Annua on the west coast.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.

Keith Mitchell

Mitchell has some excellent Florida form, the highlight his win here in 2019. He’s also made the top six in two of the last three editions of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The in-form American ranked 5^th for SG: Tee-To-Green in Phoenix last time where he was 10^th for Scrambling. Finally, he’s 39^th for Par 4 Scoring this season.

Billy Horschel

Horschel has a fourth, an eighth and a 16^th here and was runner-up in the WGC-Workday Championship in Florida last season. He returns in fine form after 11^th at Torrey Pines and 6^th in Phoenix where he had his best Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green numbers since he won at Wentworth back in September. Horschel is 14^th for Par 4 Scoring and 16^th in Scrambling so looks a great fit.

Denny McCarthy

McCarthy has a Web.com Tour Championship win in Florida (2018) and was third in this tournament last year. He’s 11^th in Par 4 Scoring and is one of the PGA Tour’s best scramblers (rank: 3^rd). So far in 2022 he's already posted a sixth at The American Express and a 12th at Pebble Beach. 

Tips  0-3; -6.00pts

1pt e.w. Keith Mitchell at 35/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  9th

1.25pts e.w. Billy Horschel at 22/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  16th

0.75pts e.w. Denny McCarthy at 55/1 (Betfred, Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  30th