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In many senses the last month of PGA Tour action (pre-silly season at least) is very similar. From Port Royal in Bermuda, through El Camaleon in Mexico, this week at Memorial Park in Houston, and on to Sea Island in Georgia next week the test is: a par of less than 72, grainy greens, a certain premium on accuracy, and wind. But this week is a little different. At the other three courses it is really only the wind that keeps the scoring in check. This week the course itself provides a much stiffer examination. Here, for example, is what Adam Scott had to say about it: “The course is relentless.” Going into detail he added: “It’s demanding off the tee. It requires something long and straight, and then you must hit the green in the right spot, too.” Need an example? Scott provided it: “At the 9th hole, Dustin Johnson’s ball was on the green for a good 10 seconds and ended up in the water, so you have to be very precise on some of them.” Saving par from off the greens is a challenge too: “The greens are still kind of growing in and that’s making it very difficult from down in the low areas around the greens. You know, you just have to get a little bit creative this week and somehow get it up on the green and try and save your par.” The newness of the renovated greens ought to degrade as a factor, of course, but plenty of players have spoken about the extreme slopiness of the putting surfaces also being a problem with scrambling. The man responsible for this tough test is Tom Doak who re-designed the layout from the original creation of John Bredemus. It has a few quirks to bear in mind. It’s a par-70, for example, but as a consequence of five par-3s and three par-5s. It is also set at around 7,400 making it quite a beefy par-70. Finally, there are a mere 17 bunkers. All in all it has proved a genuine test. On debut in 2020 the course saw just 37 players in the field defeat par and last year that number dropped to 28.
Angles to consider 1/ Strokes Gained Putting In 2020 each of the top six finishers ranked top 15 in this category and five of them were top 10. Last year three of the top four and five of the top six ranked sixth or better. The two winners have ranked third and fifth. Those slopes can fool some. 2/ The short holes The fact there are five rather than four of them seems to have had an impact. In 2020 the winner Carlos Ortiz played the par-3s in 4-under and only three men did better in totalling 5-under (one of them was second, another fifth). Last year’s winner Jason Kokrak was 6-under on the par-3s and the next best tally was 3-under. 3/ Texas It’s a common theme when the tour heads to the Lone Star State: there are golfers who love it there and others flounder. Kokrak had won on his previous start in Texas (at Colonial) and had three top seven finishes in his previous four starts. Ortiz had been fourth on debut at Houston and had also been 12th at Trinity Forest the previous year. 4/ US Open Brooks Koepka suggested that the toughness of the test resembled the national championship and the first year’s result somewhat backed that up. Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama were tied second, Koepka himself fifth, Jason Day and Mackenzie Hughes tied seventh, and Shane Lowry 11th. All of them have form in the third major of the year. It was less of a factor 12 months ago.
Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected. Jason Day The Australian is a five-time top 10 finisher in the US Open and two of those efforts saw him end the week as runner-up. He was second all week on course debut before finishing seventh and sat inside the top 10 after round one of the 2021 event before finishing 54th. At his best he his long game is long and straight, while Rory McIlroy frequently raves about his short game. He’s a two time winner in Texas and has top 10s at five different courses in the state. Mackenzie Hughes The Canadian was tied for the 54-hole lead at the 2020 US Open and has been top 30 in both that edition and this year’s. He has three Texas top 10s and has finished top 30 in four of his last six Texas starts. He carded a 63 to finish seventh here in 2020 and was 29th last year. He ranked 14th for SG Putting last season and is 17th for Par-3s this season. Denny McCarthy A consistent Texas performer (11 of 14 cuts, three top 30s in his last three starts), he was 38th here in 2020 and 11th last year, and he was seventh in the US Open this summer. He was sixth last time out in Bermuda and likes this sort of test (windy, par 70 or 71, Bermuda grass) as top 20s at Puntacana, Southwind, Jackson, Innisbrook, Houston CC, Sea Island, Sedgfield, PGA National and El Camaleon attest).
Tips: 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Jason Day at 30/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 16th 1pt e.w. Mackenzie Hughes at 66/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 16th 1pt e.w. Denny McCarty at 35/1 (Skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 53rd
* Note that Day is 35/1, Hughes 100/1 and McCarthy 45/1 at Betfred but all just five places
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