For years, the John Deere Classic was scheduled a week before the Open Championship and punters wondered about the logic of playing a birdie-fest ahead of a totally different test on the links.
And yet, Francesco Molinari won the Open after jetting in from a second place at the John Deere while Zach Johnson lifted the Claret Jug on the back of a third at the JDC.
With next week’s Scottish Open now part of the PGA Tour schedule, the John Deere Classic has been moved back a week.
In 2020 there was no edition at all due to Covid but 2021 reminded us that plenty stays the same at TPC Deere Run and that will likely prove the case again.
Lucas Glover took the title last year but runner-up Ryan Moore was a previous winner and that added to the trend of the same players cropping up on the leaderboard.
TPC Deere Run is a par 71 that measures 7,289 yards from the tips.
Scoring is always low (it averaged 69.51 last year) and the last dozen were won with no higher than 18-under. In nine of those the winner had to shoot 20-under or better.
Trying to overpower the course isn’t the key skill though and that’s shown by looking at the list of past winners.
That’s probably best highlighted by three-time winner Steve Stricker, whose recipe was put it in play, strike his irons close and putt well.
Angles to consider
1/ Course form
Stricker’s repeated success doesn’t stand alone. Zach Johnson has a win and six top threes in total while Moore, as mentioned, has a win and a second. Jordan Spieth is also a double winner although he doesn’t take part this week.
2/ Short Game
Strokes Gained Putting is always a key skill here. The top two in that category both finished tied fourth last year while from 2017 to 2019 the winner’s SGP ranking was 1st, 2nd, 1st. Last year’s winner Glover was 5th for Scrambling while three of the previous four champions were 1st in that category.
3/ Par 4s
It’s usually par 70s where Par 4 scoring seems most important. But although TPC Deere Run is a par 71, playing the par 4s is still crucial. Indeed, the last three winners ranked 1st in Par 4 Scoring: Glover (-12), Dylan Frittelli (-11), Michael Kim (-18!).
Selections
The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected.
Adam Long
The American is 17th for Strokes Gained: Putting this season and 23rd in Scrambling so has the ideal short-game skills. He’s also a notable 20th in Par 4 Scoring and comes into the event on the back of a pair of top 25s. Long has played here twice, opening with a 64 in 2019 and shooting middle rounds of 65-64 in 2021 to sit third after 54 holes before falling away on Sunday.
Patrick Rodgers
Rogers contended here as an amateur in 2013 (tied 15th) and was runner-up in 2017. He added another top 25 last year. He’s 27th in SG: Putting this season and scrambles well around the greens. As for latest form, he’s had a run of good finishes and was in the top 10 after 36 holes of the US Open last time out.
Denny McCarthy
Like Rodgers, McCarthy was prominent at the US Open and he kept his effort going for all 72 holes to finish in a tie for seventh. That followed a top five at Memorial. His big strength is on and around the greens and he’s 5th for Strokes Gained: Putting and 8th in Scrambling this season. Also note his 20th place in Par 4 Scoring. McCarthy has only played eight rounds here but has carded a 65 and two 66s.
Tips 1-2; +0.60pts
1pt e.w. Adam Long at 35/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 13th
